Lebanon: Has Hezbollah Outmaneuvered Saad Hariri?

25 January, 2011 — MRZine

Miqati to Be PM by Andrew Bossone



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Miqati and Hizbullah Out-play the Analysts by Nicholas Noe

I must say I was also taken by surprise at the pace of events and the relative success THUS FAR of the opposition.

Ever since the government fell, an almost UNIFORM consensus among the analysts was that there would be PROLONGED political stalemate.

Quite simply — the Miqati move may just move us all along quite nicely, quite fast, thereby bucking the conventional wisdom in Beirut — without the doom and gloom of the analysts and M14ers. . .  Could Hariri Jr. be so discredited and with so little effective juice?  What about false flag/disruptive operations by KSA, Future, Salafis . . . other actors?

It may be too early of course. . . .  But having met with Hizbullah’s International Relations office two days after the fall, I thought they were being over confident on their analysis that Hariri could fall, that Lebanon could move on, and that there were other Sunnis who could and would step in effectively — AND THAT an attempt by Feltman and KSA etc to isolate a new “HIZBULLAH-IRAN SPEAR-COUP-GAZA” government would not work now POST May 2008.

They may just be right, however. . . .  I thought their protestations about Hariri representing less than or around 70% of the Sunnis was way too hopeful . . . but then Geagea says it himself!

Andrew Bossone is the Lebanon reporter for Nile International and a contributor to National Geographic.  His video report above was released on YouTube on 24 January 2011.  Nicholas Noe is the Editor-in-Chief of Mideastwire.com.  The text above is an excerpt from Noe’s 24 January 2011 entry in his blog The Mideastwire Blog, reproduced here for non-profit educational purposes.