The New Dark Age

In the first few months of 2022, the US and its European vassals were in an effusive mood as president Biden waxed lyrically about the Russian Ruble becoming “rubble” and European leaders salivated over the prospects for all the new profit-making opportunities with the defeat and subjugation of Russia. And also, the great weakening of China without its northern ally. The Western optimism was so great that an extremely good offer proffered by Russia in the Istanbul negotiations was rejected. Four years later, the Russo-Ukrainian proxy war continues to grind on with Russia showing increasing economic and military strength while the Western arsenals have been depleted; with the US now handing off the financial support for Ukraine to its European vassals. With the economies of those vassals weakened by the loss of cheap Russian fossil fuels. More and more, even the European elites are coming to accept some form of Russian victory.

In parallel, the US arsenal has been further depleted to support the Israeli genocide in Gaza, and its bombing of its neighbours, together with the 2025 12-day war. Added to the failed attempts to defeat the Ansar Allah ability to attack shipping in the Red Sea, and the seeming never ending bombing of Somalia. This would not be a problem if the US Military Industrial Complex (MIC) was not so utterly corrupt, profiteering and incompetent that is unable to replace weapons and munitions at anything other than a snails pace. Now reduced even more by the Chinese dual-use export controls on the rare earths that are critical to the production of modern weaponry and munitions.

It is with the above background that the US administration decided to launch a war of aggression, together with Israel, upon Iran. Just when the negotiations between the two nations seemed to be making progress with respect to the Iranian nuclear program. The US and its sidekick assumed that the Iranian administration could be “beheaded” and that that beheading would create social and political chaos within Iran, with the Iranian opposition rising up. Once again, the US would negotiate in bad faith while planning the assassination of the very leaders that it was negotiating with. The attack was successful at killing some of the Iranian leadership, even the religious and Supreme Leader Khamenei, but the plan fundamentally misunderstood the nature of the Iranian administration. It is not dependent upon a single individual, or even a group of individuals, it is a bureaucratic structure with the bench strength and embedded processes in place to quickly appoint replacements for those assassinated.

The assumed “quick and clean” war has already turned into one that is now being talked about by the US administration in terms of “3-4 weeks”. Instead of the population rising up against the Iranian leadership, the assassination of what accounts to the combination of the Iranian Pope and President and the US/Israeli aggression in general has created a highly patriotic reaction within the general population. Khamenei was also the most senior Shia Muslim cleric, assassinated in the middle of Ramadan, risking a very negative reaction from the Shia and also Muslims in general. The killing of at least 153, the majority young girls, in their school in southern Iran will have also raised the ire of Iranians and Moslems in general.

This attack is existential to Iran and it will do whatever is required to both survive and deliver as great a blow to US interests in the region, and Israel, as possible. With Russia and China in the wings to replenish the Iranian armoury and provide other needed supplies. Their previous efforts to bolster the Iranian air defences have paid dividends in the inability of US and Israeli aircraft to overfly Iran, forcing them to rely on standoff weapons. After a few weeks, the US reserves of munitions will have been run extremely low. In addition, the US ships cannot reload their missiles at sea and will thus need to disengage and travel toward a safe port in which they can reload. As with the 2025 12-day war, the Iranians have shown the ability of their missiles and drones to pass through the defensive shields and hit their targets; while the missiles of those defensive shields are being rapidly used up. The damage being done to the US bases and Israel will be on an order of magnitude greater than during the 12-day war given that Iran now views this war as existential.

The price of oil has already jumped above US$75, and it could easily jump above US$100 if the war drags on and the Red Sea and Straits of Hormuz are closed. Even without them being closed, large jumps in ship insurance or even the inability to gain such insurance could to all intents and purposes close them. This will then feed through into the already weak European economy, and badly impact many US consumers. China is somewhat buffeted by its very large strategic stockpiles, its supplies from Russia and Central Asia, its very heavily electrified transport systems, and its very low levels of inflation. A large jump in oil prices will of course be of great benefit to Russia, just as Ukraine and Europeans weaken further. With the need to replenish a much-depleted armoury, the US MIC will not be in any position to provide more weapons and munitions to Ukraine, while the Russian MIC goes from strength to strength and is destroying the Ukrainian industrial infrastructure.

The combination of hubris and incompetence involved in launching such an attack, including the conscious attempts at the assassination of the Iranian leadership, is hard to fathom. Once again, a US administration has greatly underestimated its opponent and overestimated its own abilities. There is no obvious off-ramp for the US that does not involve a very obvious defeat, especially if Russia and China step up to maintain Iran’s armoury. Iran has been pushed into a corner with no other option but to fight for its life with whatever means possible, knowing that any compromise will simply provide its enemies time to reload for another attack. Enemies that have been shown to be utterly untrustworthy, and who stoop to the kidnapping and murder of those that they pretend to negotiate with. This may be the last swan-song for US military aggression outside the Western Hemisphere, as it will take many years to replenish its much-depleted armoury. Years in which its opponents will become stronger and stronger.

At home, Trump has placed himself in an invidious position. No attempt was made to sell such a war to the American people (only 25% of which support such a war), no attempt was made to rally support within the political class, and no attempt was made to gain support from the UN or the US vassals. This is Trump’s war, one that the political class can quickly turn on him for. The longer it continues, and the more body bags arrive home, and the higher gas prices become, the more politically toxic it will become. Iran also does not seem to be in the mood to provide any fictitious victory that Trump can claim as he TACOs, its aim must be to remove the ability of the US and Israel to repeat any such attack. The Duran covers many of the above issues below:

The next few days and weeks will be highly consequential, with the possibility of a US and Israeli debacle significant. The greatest concern must be about the possible reaction of the leaderships of those two nations to such a debacle. With a history of unrestrained aggression and escalation in the face of setbacks, intensified with the current administrations, the possibility for a more global conflagration is always possible. The much more competent and restrained leaderships of both Russia and China will need to be very much engaged to make sure that this conflict does not escalate beyond the region, and in the nature of the weaponry used.