The New Dark Age

11 November, 2009 — Strategic Culture Foundation

Hamid Karzai was re-elected president of Afghanistan. The run-off polls scheduled for 7 November were cancelled amid remaining tensions within the country. Radical Islam grows as Kabul continues to face constant pressure from the West.

The Indian elite is becoming more concerned about the situation in Afghanistan. Indian analysts pay much attention to the fact that the majority of the US population-irrespective of their political preferences- speaks for the unconditional withdrawal of the American troops from Afghanistan. Delhi thinks that in order to remain in power after the presidential elections of 2012, Barack Obama might order the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Such measure would bring changes to the geopolitical situation in the region of Central Asia, comprising some of the former Soviet republics and Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, and thus would mean the rise of Islamic influence there.

Now that Hamid Karzai’s cooperation with the United States has become less frequent, his approval ratings are growing. By interfering in Karzai’s policies aimed at creation of the coalition of public and political forces, Washington demonstrated its intention to have control of the ‘national unity’ coalition, that would only strengthen the Taliban positions in the country. Indian experts say 80% of the Afghan territories remain under control of the Talibs, while radical Islamists are active almost all across the country.

When the war campaign in Afghanistan entered its ninth year, US and its allies came into conflict with the public opinion in their countries. America found itself in deep geopolitical crisis because the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, if it does take place, will require the revision of the US global strategy amid the growing Islamist sentiments worldwide, they think in Delhi.

In view of this, the Indian leaders are demonstrating much interest in productive cooperation with Russia, Iran, China and some Central Asian states. Together, these countries could have established a national coalition of public and political forces headed by Hamid Karzai and contributed to Afghanistan’s neutral status.

China’s position deserves special attention. The recent events in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous region have highlighted the problem of security in China and forced Beijing to offer its plan of how the Afghan issue could be resolved.

Chinese authorities have been thinking over various scenarios to settle the Afghan issues relying on the fact that the war between NATO and the Taliban in Afghanistan has come to a deadlock. The western coalition has admitted its failure to defeat the enemy.

In the US, the society is split over the Afghan war: very few people urge to increase the US contingent in Afghanistan while the majority speaks for gradual withdrawal of troops.

In view of this, Beijing suggests the following:

1. It is important to stop the war in Afghanistan since it has already undermined stability even in the neighboring countries. Beijing aims to reconcile contradictory views in the society which requires an immediate ceasefire.

2. More and more Americans are becoming opposed to the war: as of today, 58% of the US citizens are against ‘punitive actions’ in Afghanistan. Neither do they approve the Afghan campaign at the Capitol Hill, especially the Democrats, who are again discussing the ‘Vietnam syndrome’ which prevented them from winning the 1968 presidential elections.

3. The Afghan settlement must result from a compromise between Kabul, the Taliban and field commanders (who have been cooperating with Talibs to prevent occupation of Afghanistan by foreigners).

4. In view of such strong opposition to the military campaign in Afghanistan, it is suggested to replace the Nato-led contingent there by the international peacekeeping forces under the UN aegis.

Thus, Beijing’s approach to the settlement of the Afghan issue differs greatly from that of the US, where Afghanistan and Pakistan are viewed as one territory. The fact that Beijing does not rule out the participation of the Taliban in the process of peaceful settlement meets Hamid Karzai’s interest to attract all major public and political forces of Afghanistan into the process. China is located too close to Afghanistan to accept the US logic of controlling the country from within.

At the same time, Beijing and Delhi yet do not see eye to eye on Afghanistan. India insists on the participation of Russia, Iran, China and some Central Asian states in the settlement while Beijing wants to impose responsibility for the Afghan campaign on the UN Security Council with its five permanent members – US, China, Russia, Great Britain and France.