The New Dark Age

Thursday, 2 May 2024 — gpovanman

Recent weeks have seen maps such as this becoming increasingly familiar. As the fortresses of the Donbass fall, so do the fortunes of the Ukrainian Army. Photo ©️ Slavyangrad

Preamble

Recent weeks have seen accelerated progress by Russian forces in the Donbass region, the Ukrainians being on the back foot time and again. This short article shall examine why this is happening.

Bogus Beliefs

With the initial phase of the Donbass War over, the Ukrainian government and its armed forces made a number of assumptions regarding the future of the region, and how objectives were to be achieved. Very broadly speaking, those assumptions were as follows:

1. Western governments would aid Kiev in every and every way, with limitless arms, munitions, training and equipment being supplied in order to not only bring the Donbass Republics back under Ukrainian rule, but also to intimidate Russia on behalf of the West.

2. Western equipment, tactics and training were vastly superior to anything on offer either in the Donbass or for that matter in Russia.

3. The Russian military machine was outdated from top to bottom, prehistoric Soviet doctrines governing the use of greatly outdated equipment.

4. Should Russia make a push, the West would, through threats and sanctions, be able to bring Russia to its knees before any headway by Moscow could be made.

5. With the last point in mind, Russian soldiers would not be in any way determined, they surrendering easily when faced by Kiev’s forces.

Despite these assumptions, military tacticians, both East and West were not so blinded by political diatribe as to not make preparations in case Russia did at some time decide to head westwards. This led to the fortification of a number of towns in the eastern part of the Ukrainian Donbass, these beginning to take place in 2015 and still ongoing when Russia launched the Special Military Operation during February 2022.

A Band of Barriers

The Ukrainian military invested heavily in towns such as Artemovsk, Avdeevka, Chasov Yar as well as others in order to ensure that any Russian push would essentially be brought to a halt before it had any chance of penetrating deeper into the Ukraine. Everything from trenches to tank traps to minefields and bunkers were engineered, a line of fortresses intended to not only give Kiev an insuperable defensive advantage, but also to bring defeat to any offensive Russian efforts.

A Lack of Logic

As praiseworthy as these installations might have been at first glance, Kiev’s thin red line was engineered with an oversight. Just as with any defensive line of this nature, once one part of it is breached, this not only divides resources, but also allows the enemy to encircle neighboring positions. Moreover, with a break in the line, logistics between individual units becomes more difficult, further hampering defensive operations.

A Dearth of Depth

Another issue concerning the Ukrainian line is that with all these efforts being concentrated in a small number of areas, the hinterland behind the defenses is left largely open, meaning that aside from encirclement, Russian forces can simply bypass (and therefore cut off) certain towns should they wish.

Tough Nuts to Crack

Russian forces have most certainly taken their time as they slowly took these citadels from under Ukrainian control, yet there is method behind the madness. Assaulting heavily defended positions is absolute suicide, as hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have already experienced, and unlike Kiev, Moscow is not willing to rack up immense casualties in order to achieve military conquests. It has instead used new weapons as well as proven tactics in order to slowly weaken each fortress until Ukrainian forces have surrendered, or in some cases simply walked away from an increasingly untenable situation. With that, the Ukrainian dominoes of the Donbass have one by one been toppled, and with that, a gateway westwards is now opening.

The Proof of the Pudding

It will come as no surprise (except to some in Kiev) that the Russian High Command viewed the situation in exactly this manner, and tailored operations to exploit the weaknesses that the Ukrainian defensive strategy presented. Artemovsk was a long and drawn-out affair, yet months later, with the availability and large-scale use of guided bombs against fortifications, victory at Avdeevka was much more swift. Experience, new weapons, precision attacks on strategic infrastructure as well as patience have led to eventual victory, a reduction in casualties being a key priority. At Chasov Yar we see the same situation unfolding, another strategic fortress that shows little if any promise of remaining under Ukrainian control for more than a few days.

A Serial Scene

Chasov Yar is certainly not the last link in the Ukraine’s chain, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk and Kupyansk being other tough nuts to crack. With Ukrainian efforts becoming increasingly fraught for a number of reasons at the same time as practice is making Russia’s job easier, seven years of Kiev’s construction are going to be overturned at an ever-faster rate.

Behind the Line

As previously mentioned, for all the effort given to the Ukrainian defensive line in the Donbass, no consideration was given to deeper defenses. With a number of the difficult dilemmas overcome, advances westward will now be easier. Not only will that create further nightmares for the military, it will also bring greater swathes of the country (and population) under Russian control.

A Menace to Morale

The fortresses of the Donbass have been the centerpieces of much of Kiev’s propaganda over past years, and with their demise, public morale and support for the government will inevitably decline. That is as true in the Ukraine as for its sponsors, Western leaders now facing not only the economic challenges generated by this conflict, but also the consequences of supporting a war with waning fortunes. Increasing pressure will be brought to bear in and out of the country, an unsavory situation deteriorating by the day. This is greatly exacerbated by not only the losses being suffered by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but also the tactics being employed to ‘recruit’ those not already in uniform. The war has affected the Ukrainians deeply, yet the manner in which the TCC recruiters operate is also causing great concern across the country.

An Exit through Exhaustion

In the same vein, it is common knowledge that Ukrainian forces are now exhausted, a lack of men, machines and rotation meaning that after two years of war, there is little or no chance of normal troops being able to leave the combat zone. It is well known that certain units (the 47th Mechanized Brigade is an excellent example) have been bounced from hotspot to hotspot incurring huge losses whilst certain elements of the Azov Battalion and other extreme outfits have evaded combat, their insubordination causing real headaches for the High Command. Notwithstanding the problems being suffered by the troops, a plummeting civilian standard of living for all but the élite is causing increasing pain at home, the current (and now technically illegitimate) government becoming more unpopular by the day.

Summary

The original Ukrainian plan regarding its operations in the Donbass were based upon ignorance, very false assumptions and trust in support from an untrustworthy West. An arrogance, perceived superiority as well as a gross underestimation of the Donbass Republics as well as Russia led a fascist-run Kiev down the path of thinking that it had built an impregnable barrier across the eastern border of the country.

Yet just like the Atlantic Wall of eighty years ago, good planning by the other side has seen defenses breached, and with it, the weaknesses of Ukrainian planning as well as politics are now becoming apparent. The battle is still at its height and not even nearly over, yet as recent weeks and even days ably demonstrate, the dominoes falling in the Donbass are a precursor to the fall of the Ukrainian state as we know it…