[I have replaced the machine translation with a better one. WB)

This brief analysis of the rapid evolution of an advanced phase of the ongoing global hybrid war attempts to identify elements of comprehensibility to a developing situation and cannot in any way claim to meaningfully grasp the reality of the underlying phenomenon that has enabled one of the main protagonists to win a round.

For the sake of terminology, we have opted for the use of the following terms to identify the protagonists:

Levant Front/Middle East/Arabic Peninsula/Iranian Plateau/Indian Ocean:

We have here an integrated military alliance formed by the US and Israel, the latter entity depends entirely on the military and economic resources of the US and its traditional allies. Instead, we will designate them as American-zionist forces, even if other forces have joined them and are participating, each at one level, in the war effort to ensure US supremacy over this region and rehabilitate the myth of Israeli predominance in the Middle East, a sine qua non for the survival of that entity. On the other hand, there are three non-state actors whose efforts are not synchronized or synergistic. It is, in particular, the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza enclave, the Lebanese Hezbollah party in Lebanon (especially in southern Lebanon) and the Ansar Allah movement in North Yemen. Two of these organizations, in Lebanon and Yemen, are supported by a state in the region, Iran, and Syria before the dissolution of the Assad regime. The Hamas movement, which had stood against the Syrian regime from the beginning of the hybrid war on regime change in Damascus on March 15, 2011, somewhat changed its position under the leadership of operational leaders like Al-Sinwar but returned to its original position as soon as it died.

From a symbolic point of view, the Iranian media have had a certain propensity to talk about an axis known as the resistance, which would have encompassed the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah strategic continuum via an Iraq with uncertain and changing allegiances, given the persistence of US influence on the country. Yemeni rebels were later included in this axis, the relevance of which is far from being established because it is not a de jure military alliance but a kind of tool for projecting a symbolic influence opposed to US policy in the region.

Eurasian Front:

The situation on this front will be easier to identify at the level of the protagonists. On the one hand, the US and all its NATO allies and all NATO allies are supporting Ukraine against the Russian Federation. Because of Russia’s special relationship with Belarus, the latter is considered an ally of Moscow, even if it does not participate directly in the conflict. Finland’s and Sweden’s accession to NATO in the midst of conflict has had as an asymmetrical corollary a spectacular historic rapprochement with North Korea, allowing that country to break its isolation and have access to resources that Washington has long denied it.

The current phase of the hybrid world war is characterized by the emergence of a comparative advantage of the T-type (technological) type, which has given the empire a significant advance against all its adversaries on the ground. This advantage, which was non-existent during the precipitous withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, explains Russia’s immense efforts to confront the empire and its proxy in Ukraine despite its resources, but is reflected remarkably in the Middle East, where a strong-structured force like Lebanon’s Hezbollah lost all of its leadership and leadership before the Syrian regime collapsed in a few days, almost without any notable fighting (800 dead) in the least. It should be noted that the fall of Damascus was less the result of the rather weak offensive of the rebels in the North (Idlib) that the Sudship was suffering from the populations of the South, including Dar’a, the fief and cradle of the Syrian rebellion of 2011, alongside the former Free Syrian Army (ASL) rebels having been integrated into a process of normalization by the former regime. This shift is the result of a dynamic of the great southern tribes with affinities with the great tribes in neighboring Jordan, and it is almost the same elements that allowed Lawrence of Arabia to break the yoke of the Ottoman Empire on the Arabian Peninsula and later allowed the British to create artificial entities such as Jordan, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. These elements are therefore opposed to any state construction and will remain so whenever their economic interests are not in line with their expectations.

The fall of Damascus thus occurred 21 years after the fall of Baghdad following the US invasion of that country. It marks the end of Michel Aflak’s Pan-Arabist ideology advocated by the Baath Party (Renaissance) and the end of the somewhat outdated period of Arab nationalism in favor of the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood, a movement created in the 1920s at the instigation of the British according to the concept of the green mantle or Green Mantle. Since the 2010s, there has been a convergence between elements of the US deep state and the Muslim Brotherhood, notably under Obama and Clinton, but it was unclear what the exact function of this tool is in the Middle East configuration until the beginning of the war in Syria. It is not very easy for Turkiye, one of the most important members of NATO, to be led by a party from this movement, and it is the decisive Turkish contribution that allowed the Syrian rebels to return to Damascus with a leader named Al-Julani (the one who is a native of the Golan) and thus a Druze who is almost the same age as zelensky in Ukraine.

Direct consequences of the fall in Damascus:

On Syria: This is the end of Syria as it has been shaped since 1971, when Hafez Al-Assad, the father of Bashar, the father of Bashar, was brought by a coup d’état. Like all Arab countries, Syria is an extremely difficult country to govern, and it is not excluded that old or ethnic and sectarian claims will emerge. The only Arab country that had been technically at war with Israel from October 1973 to December 2024, the demise of its regime gave its enemy an immediate pretext to annex 1/3 of the Golan Heights, which had remained under Syrian control and to recognize the 1974 Disengagement Agreement. The entry of Israeli forces and US special forces into Syria is no surprise.

Russian forces in Syria find themselves in a strange situation. They are not targeted by Ankara’s injunction rebel forces, whose full influence is on the new Syria. Moscow adopts a frontal wait-and-see attitude to fix the fate of the two Russian bases of Tartus and Hmeimim, and this wait-and-see is risky, because everything can tip over at any time, and Washington could be tempted by a trap from which the Russian forces will not emerge unscathed from Syria. For the time being, Russian forces scattered throughout Syria are clustering towards the coastline pending a relocation or withdrawal decision.

Lebanon:

Paradoxically, Lebanon’s Hezbollah has better absorbed the enormous shock of US-zionist forces and prevented an invasion of Lebanon at the cost of heavy casualties. Hizbullah’s leadership has always feared a direct confrontation with the US, and yet that has happened in the end, resulting in the destruction of the party’s leadership and staff. However, against all expectations, this party survived a shock that could have annihilated the leadership of any country in the world and the country’s demise. One of the remaining options for US-zionist forces is to bypass southern Lebanon through Anti-Lebanon by occupying the borders between Syria and Lebanon. Lebanon’s Hezbollah’s position is far from easy: facing many adversaries in Lebanon itself, it now faces three fronts against the Syrian HTS and US-ionist forces.

The fall in Syrian power has ended the corridor of arms and ammunition supplies from Iran via Syria, and it is highly unlikely, if not excluded, that the new masters of Damascus will be able to consider a second of providing any assistance to what they perceive as a confessional enemy. At the territorial level, there is a clear risk of the collapse and creation of Bantustans.

Iran:

Syria’s fall has severely weakened Iran. By annihilating the strategic continuum from Iran to the eastern Mediterranean, the empire succeeded in destroying what was known as the axis of resistance (the weakened Hezbollah, Syria out, and Iran without means of projection). Added to this is Iran’s loss of influence in Iraq, where power can collapse at any time. The empire will therefore be tempted to continue to push its advantage and seek either an implosion of the Iranian regime, a new color revolution or an armed revolt.

Jordan and the Palestinian Authority:

The ongoing events in Syria are undermining Amman’s regimes and the Palestinian Authority’s very precarious stranglehold over Jordan. The Syrian opposition’s democratic claims outside the rebellion could lead crushed opposition in Jordan and I-Jordan to a spirit of protest against archaic, despotic, and highly dysfunctional regimes. This is the worst fear of Washington and Tel Aviv, because the loss of their subcontractors will lead them to deal with a situation that is unknown and contrary to their common interests.

The countries of the Arab League:

Syria’s fall acutely raises the relevance of the concept of the nation state in the so-called Arab world. The latter has not only proved ineffective, since it has never really imposed itself on much older and tenacious alternative power structures, but has resulted in a complete failure. This leads to a debate on the artificial character of Arab States and the relevance of their continuity as such. These territories have always been parts or fragments of empire.

Torkiye

Ankara is for the time being the big beneficiary of what has happened in Syria: the country passes under its direct control and it is only up to the Turks to reduce the Kurdish inclinations and ensure absolute control of Damascus. Technically, the fall of the Syrian regime puts Turkiye and Israel in direct contact in Syria, because the two are continuing to extend their areas of influence and for Israel, the outright annexation of the territories following one of the foundations of Israeli policy that makes territorial expansionism a state religion. But it is more about the nature of the relationship between Torkiye and Russia, the configuration of the new Syria.

Israel: The entity is currently under the full protection of the United States, which waged a total war as in 1917 and especially 1941-1945 in order to save this artificial military outpost, where an ideology stemming from a syncretism between fascism and Bolshevism brought to their climax. This entity needs a myth of invincibility to continue, and this work was entrusted to Washington. US military, diplomatic, media, and economic action in the Middle East is only aimed at ensuring this. Developing a more elaborate concept of Leading from behind, the United States is fighting in Israelis instead while giving them that credit. This posture is likely to change in the event of isometry in terms of military technology with powers questioning US hegemony. Israel will not survive the loss of the US military umbrella.

USA:

Continuing a militarism forceful to all ordeals far more extreme than that of Japan before 1941 and having adopted all of Germany’s conceptual tools between 1933 and 1945, under the guise of liberalism barely serving as camouflage, Washington adopted the USSR’s policy to compensate for the clinical death of its impossible political system to reform and end up with the most formidable military and intelligence tool in history. The technological contribution through Elon Musk has given him a decisive advantage for the time being that it has helped him to nullify the concept of the so-called Resistance Axis, the evaporation of the Syrian regime, and the reduction of Iran to its last entrenchments. In Eurasia, the T advantage allowed a war of attrition against Russia, but not its reduction given that country’s vast military potential and, above all, its resilience in addition to North Korea’s ammunition-producing capacity. Many analysts dwell on Russia’s intrinsic flaws, but forget that opposite is the same giant that defeated Germany, Italy, and Japan (the latter with two atomic bombs) before vassalizing Western Europe and then eastern Europe while keeping South America and much of Asia under a kind of protectorate. This hegemony will continue as long as the undisclosed military technological advantage persists and the global economic system remains under the control of a single coterie.

The road to Damascus is open, the next phase is likely to be harder and much more confused than the previous one. Today’s adversaries may not be yesterday’s, and yesterday’s allies will be tomorrow’s enemies. The next phase is intermediary is the announcement of the next phase that will culminate in the climax of an endless conflict with or without American sauce or other remodeling.