The New Dark Age

28 July, 2010 — Strategic Culture Foundation

The posting of about 92000 reports, allegedly classified, covering a period of January 2004 to December 2009 spanning parts of the two US administrations and their activities related to Afghanistan and Pakistan by the WikiLeaks website have almost created a huge stir in both policy and media circles. While the sections of the US establishment have called the leaks ‘breach of federal law’ and ‘information vandalism,’ a deeper scrutiny of the revelations show how stark the failure of the US efforts in Afghanistan is emerging, and how far the Taliban, whom the US declared to defeat, has emerged stronger in the past years despite the US spending almost $300 billion on the war in Afghanistan.

In fact most parts of the revelations do not come as surprise. For instance, the reports reveal that how on many occasions the strikes intended to target the Taliban killed the civilians, and how on many occasions the US forces get frustrated due to inadequate support as in the case with the eastern Afghanistan base of Combat Outpost Keating, closed on 3 October 2009 after severe Taliban attacks. Similarly, the revelation strengthened the argument how the sections of the Taliban enjoyed closed links with intelligence agency of Pakistan. The revelations also pointed out how the secret commando units like Task Force 73, a classified group of Army and Navy special operatives, which primarily aimed at killing the Taliban commanders were not very successful, as the strikes by these forces at times led to killing of innocent civilians thus stoking further the Afghan resentment against these forces. The revelations too mentioned about Osama bin Laden and the activities of Al Qaeda in disrupting peace process in the region by organizing suicide attacks on Afghan leaders including Hamid Karzai.

These and many such revelations do not add much to conflict discourse in Afghanistan in terms of describing prevailing ground realities. However, probing further, the implications of the revelations far surpass the factual information they provide. First, the Taliban has become stronger. As the revelations at some places mentioned that the Taliban are using the same weapons which the US and Pakistan forces used against the Soviet troops during the cold war. Besides, the Taliban’s emergence too has indicated a kind of feasible connections, as the reports indicated, between sections of Pakistan intelligence agency and the Taliban. Former Pakistan President, Pervez Musharraf in an interview to The Times few months back has openly admitted the US aid money to Pakistan for anti-terrorist purposes has in fact been diverted to other areas including building weapons. The bigger question is: How the US which enjoys good relationship with Pak establishment could not stop this diversion? More importantly, how the US despite the knowledge of this collusion, as the revelations suggest, could not take steps to genuinely support the peace process, and use the aid money for the true building of the region and in countering terrorism and extremism?

It is still debatable whether the revelations made by the website were deliberately made to display ‘transparency in government activities’ that leads to ‘reduced corruption, better government and stronger democracies,’ as the Website claims, or there is any other purpose behind the revelations just aftermath of the Afghanistan conference on 20 July 2010. Whatever may the purpose behind the revelations, one thing emerges amply clear. After nine years of war in Afghanistan the situation has not improved, it still remains deplorable with further dangerous implications. The US led NATO forces have not been suitable enough to defeat Taliban in their own land. Perhaps it leads to the conclusion that the US needs to rethink and remould its strategy of intervention in complicated scenarios like in Afghanistan. Equally importantly, it also leads to the conclusion that in the emerging order of international politics it is difficult on part of a nation of to go solo to fight terrorism and extremism, and that too in difficult mountains terrains of Afghanistan, which was once the anchor of great game.

British Foreign Minister William Hague observed to the effect that the developments do not matter much for the development and peace activities in Afghanistan. He mentioned about the recent Afghanistan conference and how the participants developed a common resolve to speed up development activities in Afghanistan. However, as he was expressing this viewpoint at the recent EU meeting at Brussels, the other members like Germany developed different approach, and expressed the opinion that the revelations need to be probed further. To quote German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, ‘everything has to be evaluated.’ Probably the revelations will bring into open the fragility of the forces stationed in Afghanistan to counter one of the world’s violent insurgencies with wider international network.

In fact instead of making the reconciliation process easier in Afghanistan, the revelations have made the process difficult. The revelations will definitely embolden the Taliban spirit and further encourage their ranks to boost terrorist activities. Hence, as mentioned earlier, the revelations as such do not bear much factual implications, but its long term implications will be manifold. The revelations will definitely weaken the morale of the NATO forces in Afghanistan and make the task of David Petraeus, the NATO commander, further difficult.

On a larger spectrum the revelations indicate the inevitable. The Afghan conundrum needs a complex set of rules in which, besides the Afghans themselves, the regional powers and other international stakeholders like Russia, India and China must have a role to play. Perhaps that is the core message of the revelations. The revelations indicate that the US, howsoever powerful and maneuvering, can not go unilaterally in fighting and defeating the Taliban. It will likely prove self-defeating as the revelations reveal. On a larger scale, the revelations imply the complex Afghan problem needs a multilateral approach. “