The New Dark Age

'Socialism or Barbarism'

Geopolitics of Capitalism – State of Power 2025

Wednesday, 12 February 2025 — The Transnational Institute

Geopolitical rivalry is reshaping our world, as reactionary nationalists rise to power and global tensions mount. Our 13th State of Power report explores the shifting global order—questioning whether we are witnessing the decline of US imperialism and the rise of a Chinese empire, how nationalism is reshaping neoliberal globalization, and what these seismic shifts mean for the vast majority of the world and for social movements fighting for justice.

Infographics

Who
really rules the world? Is China reshaping global power? And in an era
of escalating rivalries, what choices remain for the rest of the world?

The State of Power 2025 infographics look at what the latest data reveals, mapping the landscape of global dominance, economic power, and military power. 

Which country rules the world?

Does China Pose a challenge to the US empire?

In an age of great power rivalry, where does that leave the rest of the world?

Essays

A fractured world

Reflections on power, polarity and polycrisis

Interview with Adam Tooze and Walden Bello

In
this fascinating conversation, Adam Tooze and Walden Bello reflect on
the fracturing of US power, the rise of China, the growth of
nationalisms and the perils and

possibilities of a multipolar order.

Read more

Illustration by Shehzil Malik

The new frontline

The US-China battle for control of global networks

Ilias Alami, Jessica DiCarlo, Steve Rolf, Seth Schindler

Current
geopolitical competition has deepened into a Second Cold War between US
and China, but this is no longer a fight over territory but rather
control of global networks – with increased state-led attempts to
control semiconductor supply chains and electric vehicle (EV) production
to digital platforms, transport infrastructure, and financial payment
systems. How can the global South and social movements navigate this new
geopolitical terrain?

Read more

AI wars in a new age of Great Power rivalry

Interview with Tica Font, Centre Delàs, Barcelona

The
contest for world hegemony has prompted a global arms race, focused  on
achieving technological supremacy on the battlefield. 

Read more

Illustration by Shehzil Malik

Geopolitics of genocide

Nick Buxton interviews Rafeef Ziadah

The
unwavering alliance between the West and Israel is not merely a matter
of lobbying or influence; it is a strategic partnership rooted in shared
imperial goals. Understanding this broader geopolitical map is
essential for building effective alliances and crafting an effective
strategy that confront the systems and actors that sustain Israel’s
settler-colonial project.

Read more

Building BRICS 

Challenges and opportunities for South-South collaboration in a multipolar world

Ana Saggioro Garcia

The
BRICS bloc poses a strategic challenge to Western hegemony, but to
understand its potential as a counter-power requires a closer look at
the complex relations within the bloc and between its members and other
countries in the Global South.

Read more

Can China challenge the US empire?

Sean Kenji Starrs

China’s
extraordinary growth has led many to assume it will soon replace the US
as the world hegemon. It is important to look beyond the headlines at
structural power – namely security, finance, production and knowledge –
to get a more accurate view of China’s potential and limitations as a
global power.

Read more

Illustration by Shehzil Malik

China and the geopolitics of the green transition

Benjamin Wray

Escalating
hostility with green-tech leader China has undermined the energy
transition in Europe and the US and now could be completely derailed by a
nationalist politics of climate denial. A just green transition depends
ever more on combining class politics with rapid decarbonisation and anti-imperialism. 

Read more

Beyond Big Tech Geopolitics

Moving towards local and people-centred artificial intelligence

Kai-Hsin Hung

Techno-nationalism
could lead to an AI Iron Curtain, splitting the world into geopolitical
blocs dominated by Big Tech powers and undermining digital sovereignty
in the majority of the world. A locally driven, people-centred AI can
help move us beyond Big Tech geopolitics.

Read more

Illustration by Shehzil Malik

The emerging sub-imperial role of the United Arab Emirates in Africa

Husam Mahjoub

The
United Arab Emirates has become a sub-imperial power in Africa,
investing in ports, airports and infrastructure projects to extract
resources and increase its global political and military influence.
Understanding the UAE’s role in reshaping regional geopolitics is
critical for resistance and justice movements to challenge imperialist
power structures effectively.

Read more

A transatlantic bargain

Europe’s ultimate submission to US empire

Juan Lovera

Why
has the EU remained largely subservient to US interests even when it
has not been beneficial to its elites? It is important to explore the
structural ties that bind the EU to the US in order to push for a Europe
based on principles of solidarity and cooperation rather than
competition and exploitation.

Read more

In search of alternatives

Strategies for social movements to counter imperialism and authoritarianism

Iqra Anugrah

If
we understand imperialism as not just military domination, but also a
system of economic exploitation by transnational capital with the
support of often authoritarian political elites, we are in a better
position to build a global popular movement against

both imperialism and authoritarian capitalism. 

Read more

Podcast

A Fractured World

Reflections on Power, Polarity and Polycrisis

Nick Buxton in conversation with Adam Tooze and Walden Bello

Don’t
miss this opportunity to listen to an award-winning economic historian
and a renowned Filipino scholar activist discuss the fractured state the
world is in, the crisis and continuity of neoliberalism,  and the
opportunities and threats for social movements.

Listen to the podcast

Artist

Illustrating Geopolitics
Illustration by Shehzil Malik

For the 13th edition of State of Power, TNI worked with Pakistani illustrator Shehzil Malik, who shared reflections on the artwork and the process.

Read more

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