The New Dark Age

US corporations and US investors have based their business strategies on the fundamental belief that the US state will always use its power to force open other nations to free trade, while at the same time generally practising free trade itself. A belief that has proven correct since WW2, and has been the basis upon which they have built global supply chains (helping to decimate the real living standards of the majority of Americans) and huge global sales based mostly upon localized production (e.g. Tesla, Starbucks, Apple in China).

Those assumptions are now being challenged by a Trump administration that much more represents domestically-oriented capital and sees the US in a life and death struggle with China for supremacy. Not only must the Ukraine adventure be dropped like a hot potato, and Europe forced to take on more of its own defence buy more over-priced crap from the US MIC, but even allies vassals must be squeezed hard to aid in the regrowth of the domestic productive forces. So there will not just be tariffs, export controls and sanctions upon China, Russia and Iran but also upon the vassals to squeeze them for more tribute and to relocate their industries to the US. So tariffs it will be upon all, started first of all on all imports of steel and aluminum (25%), and now on the closest neighbours Canada and Mexico (25% except for 10% on oil from Canada), and soon on Europe. China was hit with only an extra 10% (making the total 20% when added to the previous 10%) in addition to the 100% on EVs and the extensive list of export controls and individual sanctions.

Trump has been, and always will be, a bully at heart. He sees tariffs as the equivalent of punches designed to drive friend and foe alike into a submission beneficial to US domestic oligarch interests. Instead of playing “5 dimensional chess” he is in fact a very simple thinker, and one that shares the over-estimation of US power and the under-estimation of foes (and in this case also friends) that is a chronic condition of the US oligarchy and its courtiers. The use of tariffs may also be an attempt to hide a raising of taxes upon the many (the ones who mainly pay for the tariffs through higher prices) to fund tax cuts for the few, but they are a very risky gamble to take. Especially as they will drive up domestic inflation and help to create another cost of living crisis.

Once in place it will be hard for Trump to remove them without some significant “wins”, and the longer they stay in place and other countries retaliate the greater the impact upon US businesses and the stock market that represents so much
of the US oligarch’s wealth. Given the highly integrated nature of North American supply chains, especially with respect to car production, he may have also greatly under-estimated the level of domestic economic chaos that may result. What the US needs is an actual industrial policy, a state not dominated by the oligarchs, and the implementation of anti-trust; without which tariffs will tend to just raise prices, damage supply chains and enrich domestic monopolists and oligopolists.

Russia and Iran are already working under the “mother of all tariffs” and therefore are pretty immune to the impacts of the new tariff war. Russia is in fact flourishing, which is deeply annoying to the Western courtier class.

China has also spent some time diversifying its exports, with the US now only representing 15% of them (less than 3% of China’s GDP), and is also in an excellent position to retaliate. While Chinese exports to the US tend to be manufactured goods, the US exports to China tend to be raw materials, agricultural products and semi-finished goods; all of which can be relatively easily sourced from other nations. With Russia being more than happy to oblige, as well as Brazil and many other nations. The Chinese response has targeted the US agricultural sector with 15% tariffs, as well as restrictions on dual use exports to the US. At the same time China is boosting domestic consumption to counter any negative effects of a fall in exports to the US. Through such things as the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) China will also continue to diversify its exports; reorienting them away from the US and an increasingly protectionist EU.

China is also advancing in so many fields beyond any dependency upon the US, giving the lie to the Western racist assumptions of their own superior innovative abilities. Some US imports will be replaced with domestic production, quite possibly at lower prices given China’s manufacturing excellence and cost-effectiveness.

In contrast, the US economy and even its MIC are deeply dependent on Chinese exports and will require years if not decades to source replacements; and even then it will probably be at a higher price. One of these dependencies is in critical metals and materials where China tends to be dominant in production and/or processing.

Chinese exports to the US are predominantly managed by US companies (e.g. Apple), which will be negatively affected by new tariffs. Then there are all the US businesses operating within China that are at risk, while many fewer Chinese businesses have operations within the US. The US brands are already losing market share in China and the last thing they need is a nationalistic Chinese consumer backlash against US tariffs and a US general disrespect and aggressiveness toward the nation.

As with the Chinese economy’s refusal to collapse every year as predicted by Western commentators, its much greater relative ability to deal with a tariff war vis a vis the US will also greatly annoy the Western courtier class.

The other Trump underestimation may be the level of nationalism and sense of betrayal that he will be engendering within other nations. We have not only seen this within Mexico, but also within the “vassal of vassals” Canada as anti-US sentiment is already starting to boil. Once a tariff war is started it may be very difficult to stop it, and impossible to undo the negative impacts on foreign citizen’s views of the US and its brands. The same may become very evident in Europe.

Tesla (and other US car brands) can certainly kiss its Canadian and Mexican sales goodbye. In response, Canada has imposed tariffs on $30 billion worth of US imports immediately, and on the remaining $125 billion 21 days later. The Canadian PM also stated that he is working with the Canadian provinces to take additional non-tariff measures. Mexico has
also vowed to respond with retaliatory actions, which will be announced on Sunday March 9th. There is already an increasingly anti-US sentiment in Europe, with the extreme of course being the reaction to Musk and his car brand.

The damage done to North American wide and global US brands may be irretrievable, adding to the boycotts on brands associated with the Zionist regime. The vaunted US soft power, which has also been shredded by the support for the Zionist genocide, will also take another hit.

Both Canada and Mexico, and other nations, will look to diversify their exports and imports to reduce their dependency upon the US. A trend that China will be happy to facilitate, with the side effect of increasing China’s influence.

At the same time the tariffs, together with supply chain disruption and re-shoring, will drive up US costs which will make its exports more expensive in foreign currencies. Additionally, tariffs make it harder for foreigners to earn the dollars they need to pay off dollar denominated debt with the effect of driving up the US dollar exchange rate; again making US exports more expensive in foreign currency terms.