Tuesday, 21 February 2023 — The van says…

What most people fail to realize is that Western powerplay in Eastern Europe is merely Washington playing Kiev for all it can get. The bitter truth is that in spite of the support the Ukraine is receiving, Russia is playing for keeps.

Preamble. 

A year after Russia’s Special Military Operation began in the Ukraine, there is no end in sight, yet looking at how the situation is developing, both in-country as well as for Kiev’s allies, it is fair to say that the beginning has now ended. Quite how affairs will eventually wind up is still unknown, yet looking at Eastern Europe as well as the world as a whole, certain conclusions can now be drawn that will be examined in this article.

Drawing the Lines.

It was a western-led Kiev crossing Russia’s red lines which eventually caused this conflict to erupt, but when the war ends, it will be Moscow drawing the lines regarding a final settlement. A lot of water has gone under the bridge that used to link the East with the West, most pointedly over the last year. With both François Hollande and Merkel later admitting that the pressure they placed on the implementation of the Minsk Agreement was only a stalling tactic that the West never had any intention of adhering to, this proves that in the West, neither land nor leader can in any way be trusted. Only this week, it was revealed by European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, the EU and US started to plan sanctions against Russia a full two months before Special Operation. Moreover, since February last year, Western capitals have done everything in their power to stymie Russia and its people. It would therefore serve no purpose whatsoever for the Kremlin to enter into any agreement; as victor in Eastern Europe, it will be Moscow which dictates the terms of any surrender. As so succinctly stated by Deputy Chairman of Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev this week, ‘Zelensky won’t have to conduct any negotiations with Putin, he will only sign what he is told.’ With that said, we have to examine how this situation may evolve and where the map lines may sit at the end of the war.

A Benign Bagration.

The operation presently being conducted by Russian forces shares a number of similarities with Operation Bagration in 1944. It is pushing westwards against threats from an enemy army with far-right ideals, these having committed unspeakable crimes against Russians over previous years. The difference between the Second World War and today however is the fact that Moscow is taking every precaution necessary to ensure the wellbeing of those who come under its control. Stories of Ukrainian brutality have, outside of the West at least become commonplace over the last twelve months, yet rather than following Western precedents, the Kremlin has done everything possible to reduce suffering for both civilian and captured soldier alike.

Brothers in Spite of Arms.

Notwithstanding the war underway, the Russians still consider the Ukrainians to be their brothers. The threat that Kiev and its masters have presented to the Russian Federation cannot be overlooked, yet few in Russia have an ax to grind with the Ukrainian people themselves. In spite of the menace that Kiev eventually came to be, Moscow needs neither hatred from its neighbor nor a completely destroyed state on its doorstep.

Aftermath of the Abuse.

It cannot be understated that the manner in which the Ukrainian government has treated many of its people will not be forgotten when all this comes to an end. Everything from Nazis rampaging around the country since 2014 to the way in which people have been forced into the armed services may seem horrific, yet they pale into insignificance compared to the casualties that have been suffered since hostilities began. Moreover, with so many soldiers being MIA after being abandoned by their officers, the country may see very serious domestic upheavals once this is all over. There have been many reports in the Russian media of Ukrainians who have been glad to finally be in Russian hands, and with Kiev having abused its people in the way it has, there are likely millions more who would choose to be under the rule of Moscow rather than Kiev.

A Ruined Land.

This photo excellently expresses the current state of the Ukraine.

Looking back on the Ukraine’s post-Soviet past is not a pretty sight, over twenty years of legacy corruption turning what was the bread basket of the USSR into the basketcase of Eastern Europe. After the Maidan coup of 2014, a Washington-imposed ‘democracy’ turned a generation of Ukrainians into the victims of Western degeneracy, their country becoming the perfect example of degradation at the hands of capitalist vultures. Since the war began, affairs have gone into freefall, and even were the war to end tomorrow, what remains of the Ukraine will face a very bleak future indeed. With the country in this state, we have to look at where Russia will choose to stop.

A New Iron Curtain.

Wherever new borders are finally placed, what was once the Ukraine will lie as a completely divided land. With that, Moscow will control its gains, yet will not care for the territories it has not taken. Aside from the war, the political vitriol emanating from the West has split the East from the West just as much as it has divided the Ukraine. The lands to the West that have yearned for integration into the Western sphere of interest will be free to do so, yet the dead weights of a failed economy, extremist fighters and no real hope will hang round the neck of those who have chosen to support Kiev all the while. Russia will evidently have its work cut out rebuilding its new territories, yet after having been the victim of Western antagonism for so long, it will not really give a damn about the regions to its West that did so much to harm it over recent years. With that, we need to examine how Russia may push forward.

Drang nach Westen.

After thirty years of NATO going back on its word even faster than it has pushed eastwards, Russia is now pushing in the opposite direction, the aforementioned concern over civilian welfare meaning that progress has been slower than if all of Russia’s guns had been blazing from the get-go. Notwithstanding the slow pace, Moscow’s men have inflicted appalling casualties on Ukrainian frontline assets, but this is as much due to rigid doctrine from Kiev as it is from Russian efficiency. This matter will be explored separately.

Drang nach Süden?

After months of very bloody battles in the area of Artemovsk, we are all familiar with Russia’s push westwards, but recent rumors indicate not only a large buildup of men and machines in the Belgorod region, but also in Belarus. Another front opening on the Ukraine’s borders would open a real can of worms for Kiev and its backers, already overstretched resources now being taken way beyond breaking point. Some would say there is excellent logic behind Russia carrying out such a plan, yet viewed objectively, it would be madness for Russia to not follow such a plan.

Holding the Battle, Losing the War.

As mentioned, the battle for Artemovsk has cost Kiev dear due to this arena being as favorable as it is to both the Russian armed forces as well as the Wagner PMC. Had Moscow wanted to take this town, this could have been achieved months ago, but with this being an opportunity to reduce the Ukrainians on ground far more advantageous than elsewhere, dragging out this battle and therefore reducing Kiev’s ability to fight may in reality shorten the war as a whole. On the other hand, doltish doctrine on the part of the Ukrainian government as well as Western nations having used this battle to keep the war on their front pages, the resistance against Russia has meant immense resources have been allocated to an action that is on the global scale of things very minor. When the town falls however, the repercussions will be felt far further than just Eastern Europe. With all of that, we have to approach the question of the where and how and why of Moscow’s final conclusion to this war; the operations to conclude hostilities are yet to come and we need to see what this will mean for all concerned.

Kharkov and the North.

Russian forces are irrevocably pushing towards Kharkov, yet for the previously mentioned reasons, Moscow is putting civilian lives before celerity as it heads westwards. A push towards Sumy from Russian territory is also an increasing possibility, there being multiple reports of the Kremlin building up reserves in this region as well. Quite how far south or west Russia would push from there is yet unknown, but we can be sure that any border chosen by Moscow would be to the west of a line drawn between Kharkov and Donetsk.

The South.

Many in the West have made much of Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson, yet this strategic decision has allowed Moscow to perform much better in other areas. The retreat ordered by Surovikin is however only temporary, meaning that as Ukrainian defenses are slowly degraded across the entire country, a push into Kherson and then beyond is a near-certainty. Odessa (and Transnistria) lie a mere hundred miles to the west, and with its pro-Russian sentiments as well as Russia’s ability to then effectively deny the Ukrainians a seaboard in the process, a big push in this region is inevitable before fall of this year.

The Central Sector.

The center of what remains of the Ukraine is still in the hands of Kiev, yet as resources and options slowly vanish, so will the means to halt Russia. How and when the Kremlin plans to push eastwards is to date unknown, yet time is most certainly on Russia’s side, and moves will undoubtedly be made when best for Moscow and at the most inopportune time for Kiev.

Kiev.

The city of Kiev is obviously the lynchpin of the entire situation for both sides, this being a long push towards the west. Should Russia wish to attack the Ukrainian capital, a far easier route would be through Belarus, it being little over fifty miles from where Moscow can station its assets. This however is a stronghold not only of the country’s power, but also a seat of the ideology that is largely to blame for this war starting in the first place. As much as this city would be a symbol of resistance and the headquarters of Western military malfeasance once the conflict is over, there is another option that Moscow may consider.

Splitting the Issue.

It is at this juncture that we must take a look at the Dnieper River and examine how it may play a role in affairs as time passes. It is the longest river in the Ukraine and Belarus, and has a discharge rate some thirty times larger than that of the River Thames or a third of that of the Mississippi. In short, it is an excellent natural barrier, and one that Russia could in certain areas use to its great advantage. With that, we can now consider how this may also be relevant to operations in Kiev.

Half the Problem.

For Russian forces to take the city as a whole would be a real ordeal, yet were Moscow’s men to take just one side of the Dnieper river, around a third of the city would be taken from Ukrainian government control. This would not only weaken any power remaining in the Ukrainian capital, but may (or not) mean that with the Russian border so close, the seat of national power may be moved elsewhere. This week, Adam Smith, stated that the US ‘may’ continue pumping weapons to Ukraine after completion of Russia’s Special Operation. It goes without saying that what will remain of the Ukraine will be dominated by NATO long after the last shots have been fired, and having a large body of water between Russian territory and lands de facto occupied by NATO is plain common sense. This however is pure speculation, yet there is a great deal of merit in a plan of this nature.

Dances of Advances.

How Moscow chooses to push forward is again open to a lot of debate. It may be that set-piece maneuvers may be used in individual sectors, or that multiple operations may be carried out simultaneously as part of a larger plan. One thing is for sure however, and that is that Russia’s Special Military Operation has not yet even nearly reached its objectives; only when Moscow is satisfied that its goals have been achieved will hostilities cease, and only then under terms dictated by the Kremlin.

Summary.

This war began due to Western leaders and their puppets disregarding Russia’s red lines, and with the Lithuanian president this week stating that ‘We should cross every (Russian) red line, we crossed these red lines in past MANY times, Ukraine needs support in air, ground and sea…’, nothing has changed, nor is it likely to in the foreseeable future. This is the war that many in the West wanted for so long, and the Ukrainian situation was engineered in order that others fight Russia on behalf of the Western establishment.

What those warhawks never considered was an opponent that could not only stand up to their proxy bullying, but could affect their economies negatively in the process. The resulting conflict has split the East from the West, yet Russia has gone to great pains to ensure that its brotherly Ukrainians suffer as little pain as possible.

The consequences of the last year have already been far reaching, yet with European governments now feeling the pinch whilst Kiev feels Moscow’s punch, this will give Russia an increasing reach westwards as we move forward. Quite how or where or when advances will be made is still open to infinite speculation, but with every day that passes, the continued Ukrainian attacks Donetsk only give Moscow more reason to press ahead. The only apparent salvation for Kiev is the promises of equipment and munitions from the West, yet as we will see in the next article, this will prove as problematic for Kiev as it will for those Western capitals making the pledges.

One day a war caused by red lines will be over. Yet it will be Russia, which after seeing red, that will write the lines scripted to end the conflict. Every step made by the Ukraine’s supporters has brought the West closer to the edge, leaders irrevocably tying the destiny of their countries to the fate of a failed beggar state…