Thursday, 24 February 2022 — Moon of Alabama
The military of Russia has launched an operation to disarm, and possibly regime change, the Ukraine.
I do understand why Russia is doing this – it is either attack now or defend itself later with way more casualties and the danger of total defeat.
I had hoped though that it would find other methods to protect Russia from further NATO aggression.
In 2014 the U.S. instigated regime change in Kiev and has since controlled the Ukrainian government. It has build up the Ukraine as a base to strangle Russia economically and militarily.
During the last two centuries Russia had to defend itself, with horrific casualties, against two huge invasions from the west. It is understandable that it does not want to repeat that experience.
It is difficult to discern what the planed end state of this operation is. Where is this going to stop?
Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorussiya, on the land east of the Dnieper and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population and that, in 1922, had been attached to the Ukraine by Lenin. That state would be politically, culturally and militarily aligned with Russia.
This would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is under Russian protection.
The rest of the Ukraine would be a land confined, mostly agricultural state, disarmed and too poor to be build up to a new threat to Russia anytime soon. Politically it would be dominated by fascists from Galicia which would then become a major problem for the European Union.
Thanks to Stalin’s additions to the Ukraine three countries, Poland, Hungary and Romania, have claims to certain areas in the Ukraine’s western regions. If they want to snatch those up again it is now probably the best time to do so. Despite being part of NATO, which likely would not support such moves, those three will have domestic policy difficulties to withstand the urge.
I hope for a sharp but short fight which destroys the Ukraine’s military capabilities but causes as little casualties and other damages as possible.
It is sad that NATO countries, including mine, did not have the courage to make the necessary concessions to prevent this from happening.
Putin’s speech last night (in Russian) explains why this is happening.