9 July 2020 — Tricontinental
Greetings from the desk of the Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its June 2020 update. The prognosis is bleak. Global growth for 2020 is projected at -4.9%, 1.9% below the IMF’s forecast from April. ‘The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated’, acknowledges the IMF. Forecasts for 2021 are somewhat optimistic, sitting at 5.4%, which is higher than the 3.4% the IMF predicted in January 2020. ‘The adverse impact on low-income households is particularly acute’, says the IMF. Poverty reduction is effectively off the agenda. The World Bank’s recent report takes a dim view, with 2020 growth forecast at -5.2%, predicting the deepest global recession in eight decades. The World Bank’s expectation of growth for 2021 is at 4.2%, lower than the IMF’s 5.4% prediction.