U.S. Intelligence Has Found … Easy To Disprove Claims Of A Russian Attack On Ukraine

4 December 2021 — Moon of Alabama

A few years back:

In his State of the Union message in January, President Bush approvingly cited the report. “

The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa,” said Bush.

On Thursday, standing beside British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Bush said of Britain, “Not only our intelligence, but the intelligence of this great country made a clear and compelling case that Saddam Hussein was a threat to security and peace.”

Now:

As tensions mount between Washington and Moscow over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence has found the Kremlin is planning a multi-front offensive as soon as early next year involving up to 175,000 troops, according to U.S. officials and an intelligence document obtained by The Washington Post.

“The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s snap exercise near Ukraine’s borders,” said an administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information. “The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.”

The unclassified U.S. intelligence document obtained by The Post, which includes satellite photos, shows Russian forces massing in four locations. Currently, 50 battlefield tactical groups are deployed, along with “newly arrived” tanks and artillery, according to the document.

I am convinced by now that the U.S., NATO and the Ukraine have planned to attack the rebel held grounds in eastern Ukraine in early February 2022. ‘Western’ propagandists and media will not report of the Ukrainian attack on its eastern rebels.

(The August 8 2008 attack on Russian peacekeepers in Georgia took place when Putin attended the opening of the Olympics in Beijing. Russia has confirmed that Putin will attend in the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing on February 4 2022.)

The Ukrainian attack will likely have only little success. But the rebels can not hold for long without significant reinforcement. The Ukrainian army attack will thus provoke Russia into intervening. That counter-intervention will then get reported as the ‘long expected Russian attack on Ukraine’.

The current U.S. propaganda of an Russian attack on the Ukraine is pure bullshit designed to prepare the public for the above preplanned narrative.

When the Russian counter-attack takes place the Ukrainian army will get destroyed by a rainstorm of Russian missiles. But Russian forces will not invade the country. Russia will only hold, via its proxy forces, on to the rebel republics around Donetzk and Luhansk. Russia’s aim is to federalize the Ukraine as laid out in the Minsk agreements with the east having a veto against any NATO membership of the country. That aim does not require an occupation of the Ukraine.

We know that the above 175,000 troops number is totally made up just as the numbers claimed by the Ukraine. As the Washington Postreport describes it:

While Ukrainian assessments have said Russia has approximately 94,000 troops near the border, the U.S. map puts the number at 70,000 — but it predicts a buildup to as many as 175,000 and describes extensive movement of battalion tactical groups to and from the border “to obfuscate intentions and to create uncertainty.”

The Russian military moves come as Moscow has raised eyebrows in Washington with a sudden mobilization of reservists this year and a dramatic escalation of its rhetoric regarding Ukraine.

Russian officials have defended the reserve mobilization as a necessary measure to help modernize the Russian armed forces. But the administration official raised concerns about the “sudden and rapid program to establish a ready reserve of contract reservists,” which the official said is expected to add an additional 100,000 troops to the approximately 70,000 deployed now.

The somewhat murky BARS-2021 program to establish a combat army reserve (BARS) in Russia was only launched in the mid of this year:

We are talking about reservists who will conclude a contract with the Ministry of Defense, receive certain money for being in the reserve and regularly participate in military training and exercises.

Such reservists have been participating in military exercises since 2016, as an experiment.

The message from the Ministry of Defense on the increase in the number of reservists also refers to the exercises in the Kaliningrad region, to which they were transferred in early September.

The aim of building that reserve force is to eventually do away with compulsory conscription. It has nothing to do with a war in Ukraine. The 100,000 “ready reserve of contract reservists” do not exist today. There are currently only experimental units some of which took part in exercises in Kalinigrad.  It will take years to stand up and train a 100,000 strong force of weekend warriors before it can be taken into any serious action.

The whole claim of a 175,000 strong Russian force by early next year is thus pure bullshit.

As is the claim of “100 battalion tactical groups”. The Russian army has in total only 136 of those:

According to Defence Minister Shoigu, in every regiment and brigade, two battalions are formed by contractors, while one is formed by recruits, who are not involved in combat missions. Currently, there are 136 tactical battalion groups in the armed forces formed by contractors.

Russia is a county spanning 11 timezones. It is totally unfeasible for it to throw three quarters of its professional tactical units against the Ukraine as this would leave all other borders bare of protection.

The satellite pictures the report mentions are also not relevant. They simply show troops on their regular training grounds hundreds of kilometers away from the Ukraine. Troops train for war all the time. It is their job.

All together the claims made today are cheap propaganda not even intended to be taken seriously by any professional in the field.

“The British government has learned” was a lie. Saddam had not sought uranium from Africa. The  “U.S. intelligence has found” claim is likewise a lie.

The lies told today are to build a narrative that can later be used to obfuscate and hide the real initiator of a preplanned war in the Ukraine.

That is not going to be Russia.

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