29 December 2011 — Stop NATO
- U.S.-Russian Missile Shield Disagreement Intensifies
- Russia Delivers New Missile Defense Systems To Belarus
- U.S. Interceptor Missile Plans Threat To China’s Nuclear Forces
- Purpose Of U.S. Return To Asia Strategy: Control Of ‘World Island’
- India-Japan-U.S. Axis: Containment Of China Strategy
- Pakistan: Army Rejects Pentagon Report On Deadly NATO Attack
- NATO Increases Cyber Warfare Capabilities
- Caucasus And Beyond: New NATO Agenda For All Partners
- Russia: NATO Ignores Crimes By Libyan Allies
- Russia, Egypt Discuss Investigation Of NATO Libyan Operations
- North Africa, Middle East: From Arab Spring To NATO Autumn
U.S.-Russian Missile Shield Disagreement Intensifies
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/optimism-on-missile-defense-agreement-drops/450561.html
Moscow Times
December 28, 2011
Optimism on Missile Defense Agreement Drops
By Nikolaus von Twickel
-‘The basic principle of defining security threats remains the same all along: If new arms are deployed in such a way that they reduce your defense capability, then that is bad. There is no point in further analyzing if these weapons are defensive or offensive.
‘You must take into account that missile defense radars and satellites have reconnaissance capabilities. These and other factors are negatives for Russia in the deployment of a European missile shield.’
Moscow will develop and deploy new rockets to counter a U.S.-driven European missile shield as long as NATO frustrates Russia in talks to cooperate over missile defense, according to senior Defense Ministry officials.
The optimism after last year’s Russia-NATO summit in Lisbon has been falling inexorably because the Western alliance is not heeding Moscow’s reservations, Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov told The Moscow Times.
‘They listen to us carefully and say they understand our concerns, but at the same time they continue to implement their plans for expanding their missile defense potential,’ Antonov said in an e-mailed interview conducted last month.
Antonov pointed out that the United States has stated that it will build a radar station in Turkey, missile interceptor bases in Romania and Poland, and deploy Aegis missile defense ships from a naval base in Spain.
‘We are not satisfied with these developments. Our partners are not prepared for the sort of cooperation offered by us — for a joint European missile defense,’ he said. ‘They guarantee that the missile defense system will not be directed at Russia’s strategic nuclear forces, but only in words.’
Alliance officials have said they would like to reach a missile defense deal with Moscow by NATO’s summit in Chicago next May, but the Kremlin has expressed growing antipathy to the project.
President Dmitry Medvedev warned last month that it could upend the ‘reset’ with Washington and lead to a new arms race. In a video address he threatened to drop out of the New START nuclear arms reduction pact and to direct the country’s own ballistic missiles against NATO’s shield.
The head of the Strategic Rocket Forces, Lieutenant General Sergei Karakayev, announced earlier this month that a planned new intercontinental ballistic missile generation would counter the Western missile shield.
The new silo-based, 100-ton missiles ‘will be better equipped to overcome the U.S. missile shield,’ Karakayev told RIA-Novosti.
The yet unnamed liquid-fueled rockets should replace the country’s Soviet-era R36 missiles, codenamed ‘Satan’ by NATO, the general said.
Karakayev said his forces were busy introducing and upgrading other weapons like the Yars, Topol and Bulava missiles, in accordance with Medvedev’s announcement that Moscow would take steps to strengthen national security in light of U.S. actions to deploy the missile shield.
NATO is adamant that Russia has nothing to fear from the missile shield because it is purely defensive.
But Deputy Defense Minister Antonov explained that this does not dispel Moscow’s doubts.
‘The basic principle of defining security threats remains the same all along: If new arms are deployed in such a way that they reduce your defense capability, then that is bad. There is no point in further analyzing if these weapons are defensive or offensive,’ he said.
‘You must take into account that missile defense radars and satellites have reconnaissance capabilities. These and other factors are negatives for Russia in the deployment of a European missile shield,’ he said.
Antonov pointed out that Washington had shown a similar stance when it argued strongly against Russian plans to sell ‘purely defensive’ S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Iran.
Moscow canceled the deal in 2010, saying it would violate UN Security Council sanctions.
Asked about U.S. scientists’ doubts that NATO’s missile shield would ever work as envisaged by Western officials, Antonov said the system’s effectiveness will only be known after it has been put in place and Moscow was obliged to assume it can work.
‘We have a duty to take the potential of U.S. anti-missile weapons into account, which, under certain conditions, could intercept our missiles,’ he said.
But the deputy minister also stressed that the door for further missile defense cooperation talks remains open.
A career diplomat, Antonov joined the Defense Ministry last February after serving seven years as director of the Foreign Ministry’s security and disarmament department.
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Russia Delivers New Missile Defense Systems To Belarus
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2011-12/29/c_131332223.htm
Xinhua News Agency
December 29, 2011
Belarus receives modern air defense missiles from Russia
MINSK: The Belarusian Air Defense Forces have received the first battery of the Tor-M2 air defense missile systems from Russia, the Belarusian Defense Ministry said on Wednesday.
The ministry said in a statement that the 120th Air Defense Missile Brigade of the Western Operational Tactical Command has received the air defense missile system.
According to the ministry, relevant personnel had been trained in Russia to use the new weaponry.
The new weaponry will greatly improve the combat capability of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense troops, the ministry said in the statement.
Russia is the main partner of Belarus in matters relating to supplies of military products, with preferential delivery terms available.
A battery of Tor-M2 air defense missile systems comprising four combat vehicles is capable of intercepting simultaneously 16 targets flying from any directions at speeds under 700 meters per second within a 12-kilometer range at an altitude of up to 10 kilometers at any time and in any weather conditions.
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U.S. Interceptor Missile Plans Threat To China’s Nuclear Forces
http://rt.com/politics/russia-china-us-missile-defense-pacific-803/
RT
December 28, 2011
‘China more at risk from US AMD plans in Pacific’
Robert Bridge
-’A Pacific missile defense system is a matter of a not very distant future. Japan already possesses four and South Korea two destroyers equipped with Aegis systems. The Japanese are planning to increase this number to six.’
-’We cannot view this system only within the framework of negotiations between Russia, the US, and NATO. Because China is a crucial factor affecting the UN Security Council positions.’
Speaking on the presence of US missile defense systems in the Pacific region, Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Vladimir Dvorkin says this shield is more of a threat to the nuclear forces in China than it is to Russia’s.
Major Gen. Dvorkin, a senior fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, revealed that Japan and South Korea are already equipped with the Aegis missile defense systems.
‘A Pacific missile defense system is a matter of a not very distant future,’ Dvorkin said at a conference in Moscow. ‘Japan already possesses four and South Korea two destroyers equipped with Aegis systems. The Japanese are planning to increase this number to six.’
Japan has already intercepted ballistic targets with support from the US, he added.
Given the location of these particular missile defense assets, they pose more of a threat to China’s nuclear forces than Russia’s.
‘This is a working missile defense system. And surely it threatens China’s nuclear deterrence potential more than Russia’s,’ Dvorkin said.
In light of such findings, the retired major general said China, a growing military power in its own right, must also be involved in the ongoing negotiations on US missile defense in Europe and Asia.
‘We cannot view this system only within the framework of negotiations between Russia, the US, and NATO,’ Dvorkin said. ‘Because China is a crucial factor affecting the UN Security Council positions,’ he added.
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Purpose Of U.S. Return To Asia Strategy: Control Of ‘World Island’
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90883/7689638.html
China Military Online
December 27, 2011
What is behind US ‘Return-to-Asia’ strategy?
Edited and translated by People’s Daily Online
-The American overall strategy toward China is giving the same priority to cooperation and prevention, but intensifying ‘security rebalancing’ efforts on China, taking comprehensive measures to suppress China, and instigating its allies to pay, contribute and appear to restrain China.
-Some thinkers of the U.S. Navy are quite interested in the English geographer Halford Mackinder’s ‘Heartland’ theory. Mackinder said ‘Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World Island (Eurasia).’
Mackinder’s followers have applied this strategy to Asia, and believed that controlling South China Sea will make the U.S. air force and navy command East Asia, and consequently command the ‘World Island’.
-Currently, the situation in Europe is under American control, and the situation in the Middle East is beneficial to the United States. The world’s geographic center is transferring from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and the Asia-Pacific region has become the world’s political and economic center.
Recently, the PLA Daily interviewed Lin Zhiyuan, an expert on U.S. issues at the Department of World Military Research under the Academy of Military Sciences on the U.S. strategy to ‘return to Asia.’
Reporter: While talking about Asia recently, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, ‘The United States is back,’ making it clear that the United States has paid more attention to the Asian-Pacific region than ever, and it will shift its strategic focus to Asia in the future. What do you think of the move?
Lin Zhiyuan: It aims to fully restore U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States implements a global strategy, which has respective focuses on deployment.
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States started to shift its strategic focus to Asia. However, the American focus on Asia was always interrupted by some major events, such as Asia’s financial crisis and the war on terrorism. Especially over the past 10 years, the United States paid all attention to anti-terrorism and got entangled in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but made slow progress in Asia.
Today’s United States has taken ‘reviving the United States, leading the world’ as its core objective. It changed the past practice of giving top priority to anti-terrorism, withdrew troops gradually from battlefields in Iraq and Afghanistan, accelerated its pace of shifting strategic focus to Asia, and has taken a number of substantial measures.
Reporter: At the 12th round of China-U.S. defense consultation held recently, the U.S. Undersecretary of Defense Michael Flournoy said the Pentagon does not regard China as an ‘enemy.’ The China-U.S. relation is distinctive and certainly not ‘hostile relation.’ What’s your opinion?
Lin Zhiyuan: There have been various versions about China-U.S. relations, which is basically a ‘neither friend nor foe’ relationship. It is a particular relationship between the world’s only superpower and a rising great power, and the most important geopolitical relationship.
The American overall strategy toward China is giving the same priority to cooperation and prevention, but intensifying ‘security rebalancing’ efforts on China, taking comprehensive measures to suppress China, and instigating its allies to pay, contribute and appear to restrain China.
At the same time, the United States has strengthened penetration in China’s surrounding regions through humanitarian aid, military exchanges and arms sales. It has taken various actions in order to show its leadership and appeal to allies.
Reporter: The South China Sea issue has become increasingly sensitive and tense at present. Does America’s returning to the Asia-Pacific region mean it will pay more attention to or get involved in the South China Sea issue?
Lin Zhiyuan: Some thinkers of the U.S. Navy are quite interested in the English geographer Halford Mackinder’s ‘Heartland’ theory. Mackinder said ‘Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World Island (Eurasia).’
Mackinder’s followers have applied this strategy to Asia, and believed that controlling South China Sea will make the U.S. air force and navy command East Asia, and consequently command the ‘World Island’.
Reporter: In fact, the United States has never been away from Asia. What kind of impact will the so-called ‘return to Asia’ strategy bring to the Asia-Pacific region?
Lin Zhiyuan: Currently, the situation in Europe is under American control, and the situation in the Middle East is beneficial to the United States. The world’s geographic center is transferring from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and the Asia-Pacific region has become the world’s political and economic center.
The United States is eager to find a new way to consolidate its dominant position in this region. As for the interior political situation, the American political struggle has entered a critical stage and the economy remains depressed. Under such circumstance, the Obama administration needs to be more aggressive in military [matters] and diplomacy in order to create favorable conditions to win the presidential election. Therefore, the American global strategy shows a layout of stabilizing in Europe, ‘shrinking’ appropriately in the Middle East and ‘expanding’ in the Asia-Pacific region.
The strategic adjustment of the United States will pose a great challenge to the geopolitical situation in the Asia-Pacific region and even the world order. The American intervention in some regions’ hot spots will result in a more complicated strategic environment for China’s peaceful rise.
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India-Japan-U.S. Axis: Containment Of China Strategy
Press Trust of India
December 28, 2011
Japanese Premier Noda’s India trip part of Japan’s strategy to contain China’
-’Japan and India have comprehensively boosted regional cooperation in recent years, not only in security but also in economic ties. And the cooperation has been moving from bilateral to multilateral, trying to include the United States, Australia and India in its ‘Arc of Freedom and Prosperity.’’
-The report also noted that Noda’s visit to India comes after the first round of trilateral talks in Washington last week among the US, India and Japan, and an India-Japan Defence Ministers’ meeting in Tokyo in November.
-’Japan must have gained the approval of the US before it announced it was lifting the ban. This suggests that the two countries are working in coordination to adjust their Asia-Pacific strategy. So, it (the relaxation of the ban) will have a negative effect on China.’
BEIJING: Japanese Premier Yoshihiko Noda’s ongoing India visit aimed at boosting bilateral strategic ties was part of Tokyo’s attempt to strengthen its alliances with Asia-Pacific nations to ‘contain’ China, the official media here claimed today.
Boosting ties with India is part of Japan’s strategy of strengthening alliances with Asia-Pacific nations with an eye on China, state-run China Daily quoted security analysts as saying.
The India-Japan summit is a continuance of Japan’s ‘Arc of Freedom and Prosperity’ strategy, which has been widely interpreted as an effort to contain China, Lu Yaodong, director of the department of Japanese diplomacy at the Institute of Japanese Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the daily.
Citing reports that Noda and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are expected to sign a currency swap accord worth up to USD 10 billion besides discussing nuclear cooperation, the daily referred to Noda’s comments that he would discuss political, security, economic and human exchange and Japan’s readiness to help infrastructure projects in India with Singh.
‘Japan and India have comprehensively boosted regional cooperation in recent years, not only in security but also in economic ties. And the cooperation has been moving from bilateral to multilateral, trying to include the United States, Australia and India in its ‘Arc of Freedom and Prosperity’,’ Lu said.
The ‘Arc of Freedom and Prosperity’ is a pillar of Japan’s diplomacy initiated in 2007 by former Foreign Affairs Minister Taro Aso. It has been interpreted as an effort to make allies to contain the rise of China in the Asia-Pacific region, he said.
The report also noted that Noda’s visit to India comes after the first round of trilateral talks in Washington last week among the US, India and Japan, and an India-Japan Defence Ministers’ meeting in Tokyo in November.
There has been a renaissance in Japan-India relations since the 1990s, following their non-alignment during the Cold War, Takenori Horimoto, a professor of contemporary South Asian politics at Shobi University said.
With New Delhi’s post-Cold War economic liberalisation policies, India has become a new market for Japan, Horimoto said.
‘Meanwhile, the rise of China has meant that both Japan and India have increasingly eyed each other as potential strategic partners in the last five years,’ he said.
Difficulties in the US domestic economy have made it rely more on its Asian alliances to boost its presence in the Asia-Pacific region, after the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and its gradual withdrawal from Afghanistan, the newspaper quoted the analysts as saying.
Another report in the same newspaper said Japan’s decision to lift ban on arms exports would also pose a threat to China.
‘The lifting of the ban paves the way for Japan’s air and marine forces to upgrade their hardware capability. So if we look at it over the long term, it will pose threats to China,’ Yang Bojiang, a professor of Japanese studies at the University of International Relations in Beijing, said.
The change could possibly reshuffle the international arms trade, and Japan’s competitiveness in electrical equipment for military use may squeeze Russia’s market share, he said.
‘For Japan, it now breaks into a politically restricted area. But for the Asia-Pacific region, uncertainties have increased,’ Yang said.
Su Hao, director of the Asia-Pacific research centre at China Foreign Affairs University in Beijing, told the daily that Japan’s relaxation of the arms export ban will complicate security in the Asia-Pacific region.
‘As a further step to become a normal country, the allowance of arms exports will provide Japan a new way to boost ties with countries in East and Southeast Asia, ’ Su said.
‘More important, Japan must have gained the approval of the US before it announced it was lifting the ban. This suggests that the two countries are working in coordination to adjust their Asia-Pacific strategy. So, it (the relaxation of the ban) will have a negative effect on China,’ he said.
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Pakistan: Army Rejects Pentagon Report On Deadly NATO Attack
The Nation
December 29, 2011
Army finds fault with US probe head
By Sikandar Shaheen
ISLAMABAD: Rejecting the detailed NATO probe on last month’s border attack, the Pakistan Army has questioned the validity of the findings supervised by a military man who held command of allied forces in Afghanistan.
The military has expressed serious reservations over US Air Force Brigadier General Stephen Clark’s leading the Mohmand attack probe while refusing to show any compliance for the launch of a fresh investigation.
The development reportedly followed an exchange of written communication between the Pentagon and Pakistan’s military headquarters (GHQ) amid reports that the latter has raised serious questions over the authenticity of the NATO report under the supervision of Brigadier General Clark.
According to informed officials, the Pakistan military holds Clark as one of the commanders responsible for the November 26 deadly attack on two Pakistani military pickets – Volcano and Boulder – that killed 24 soldiers.
As head of Air Force Special Operations Forces (AFSOF), Clark remained Colonel Commandant of the 27 Special Operations Forces (SOF) Wing that carries out ground and aerial operations in Afghanistan. The 16 Squadron Wing of the United States Air Force (USAF), that saw its gunship choppers bombarding the Pakistani pickets, was also headed by Brigadier General Clark in his official capacity as the chief pilot.
The Squadron 16, it is learnt, directly oversees the operational command of the sophisticated gunship choppers AC-130 H Spectre that were used in the Mohmand Agency attack. Apart from heading the combat mission in Afghanistan, Brigadier General Clark also remained the Commander of 4th SOF at the USAF.
Citing the afore-stated factors, Pakistan’s military, in the Wednesday’s correspondence with the Pentagon, is reported to have pointed out Stephen Clark’s unsuitability for leading a sensitive probe that, according to military circles, compromised his objective position owing to his direct professional linkages with allied combat forces in Afghanistan. ‘He is not neutral. Given that he himself commands the Special Operations Forces, we have grounds to believe that the November 26 episode did not happen without Clark’s consent. He is as much to be held responsible as General Allen is,’ military officials said.
When contacted on Wednesday, the NATO Air Operations spokesperson in Afghanistan Christopher DeWitt told this scribe that Pentagon was in a better position to address any queries on Brigadier General Stephen Clark. Pentagon spokesperson George Little was not accessible at his official cell phone nor did he return the emails.
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Earlier last Friday, the Pakistan Army had rejected the initial findings of the investigation on Mohmand Agency attack released by the Pentagon. A military statement had said that a detailed response (to the report) would be given as and when the formal report was received. This newspaper had reported Sunday that NATO was unlikely to share the detailed report with Pakistani military, sensing adverse reaction from the latter. This development followed the requests by the US Central Command (CENTCOM) Chief General David Mattis which had been turned down for a meeting with Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. Reportedly, General Mattis wanted to visit Pakistan to brief the country’s military top brass on November 26 attack.
Pakistani officials say that the military refused to cooperate on last month’s probe because the probe’s findings in the presence of General John Allen, the NATO Commander in Afghanistan, and Brigadier General Clark were ‘pretty obvious’. Military circles believe that an impartial inquiry was not possible without putting into probe General Allen, Clark and Afghan National Army’s Head General Sher Muhammad Karimi.
Our special correspondent from Washington adds: While dropping hints of disciplinary action against those responsible for last month’s NATO attack that killed 26 Pakistani soldiers, the US military said Tuesday that Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has been briefed on its investigation into the deadly incident.
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A summary of the report was released Thursday by the officer who led the investigation, Brigadier General Stephen Clark.
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It took the NATO-led force 90 minutes to halt air strikes after a Pakistani liaison officer first alerted US and coalition counterparts that Pakistani troops were coming under fire from American aircraft, the report said.
The probe also said the US military had failed to notify the Pakistanis in advance of the night raid near the border and that a coalition officer mistakenly gave the wrong location of the US troops to his Pakistani counterpart.
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NATO Increases Cyber Warfare Capabilities
http://www.neurope.eu/article/nato-increases-cyber-security
New Europe
December 28, 2011
NATO increases cyber security
According to a report by Advance magazine, Finmeccanica and Northrop Grumman Corporation signed a Teaming Agreement in order to respond to the proposal for the NATO Computer Incident Response Capability (NCIRC) – Full Operating Capability (FOC).
This extensive managed service aims to provide information assurance to around 50 NATO sites and headquarters throughout 28 countries worldwide.
…The project is intended to meet the level of ambition of NATO Head of States as set out during the Lisbon Summit in November 2010.
Alberto de Benedictis, Chief Executive Finmeccanica UK and responsible for Finmeccanica Cyber Solutions, said: ‘This is a strong partnership which combines the capabilities, resources and expertise of both organisations spanning the UK, US and Italy and resulting in a superior proposal which best meets the requirements of this key NATO Programme.’
Mike Papay, vice president of Cyber Initiatives, Northrop Grumman Information Systems, said: ‘Northrop Grumman has a strong track record of providing the most advanced, integrated cyber security solutions across all domains for the US military, civilian government and private industry.
‘Protecting networks from the growing cyber threat is a global challenge and we look forward to bringing to this industry partnership the resources, experience and expertise from across our company to ensure the best possible solution for the customer in this strategically important NATO programme.’
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Caucasus And Beyond: New NATO Agenda For All Partners
http://en.apa.az/news.php?id=162657
Azeri Press Agency
December 28, 2011
Romanian Ambassador: ‘NATO is concerned about the protracted conflicts in the South Caucasus’
Rashad Suleymanov
NATO’s new partnership menu will be available for all partners from 2012
Baku: NATO’s new partnership menu will be available to all partners in 2012, Romanian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Daniel Christian Chiobanu said, APA reports.
The ambassador said the new partnership menu included more than 1600 events. ‘The partner countries will have new two-year individual partnership plans in this framework’.
Chiobanu said NATO was concerned about the protracted conflicts in the South Caucasus. ‘As a neighbor of this region, Romania is interested in the settlement of these conflicts. It also supports the integration of the regional countries into the Euro-Atlantic space’.
The ambassador called Azerbaijan an important partner for the alliance and said Romania was ready to organize dialogue between NATO and Azerbaijan.
The Romanian embassy in Baku is the NATO coordinator for Azerbaijan.
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Russia: NATO Ignores Crimes By Libyan Allies
http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/12/28/63072900.html
Russian Information Agency Novosti
December 28, 2011
Russia: NATO ignored Libyan rebels crime
NATO has been ignoring crimes by the former Libyan rebels, says a report on injustice and violations around the globe published by Russia’s Foreign Ministry.
The document claims that the Coalition troops haven’t reacted to ethnic murders and allowing the rebels to kill Gaddafi despite calls for tolerance.
The first days of the Libyan campaign killed some 100 civilians, says the report.
Moscow wants an objective probe into the facts conducted by the Human Rights Court.
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Russia, Egypt Discuss Investigation Of NATO Libyan Operations
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2011-12/28/c_131332138.htm
Xinhua News Agency
December 28, 2011
Russia, Egypt discuss investigation of NATO operations in Libya
MOSCOW: Egypt may join Russia in demanding an investigation of NATO operations in Libya, Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amrsaid said Wednesday.
Speaking to reporters after talks with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Amr said Moscow and Cairo have been discussing the idea proposed by Russia ‘with full seriousness.’
‘We are considering this issue and consulting with Russian colleagues and will make a decision later,’ Amr was quoted by RIA Novosti news agency as saying.
Lavrov reiterated that Moscow demanded an investigation of NATO actions after media reports said airstrikes killed dozens of civilians in Libya.
The two diplomats said Russia and Egypt would continue to pay close attention to the situation in the Middle East and North Africa, demanding that any changes be determined through dialogue ‘by peaceful means and without external interference.’
Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, last week urged NATO to investigate civilian deaths in Libya, after the New York Times reported dozens of Libyan civilians were killed during NATO’s eight-month military operation.
The action was rejected by the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., who called Moscow’s demand an attempt to distract the international community from current events in Syria.
NATO also said there were no civilian casualties during the operation.
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North Africa, Middle East: From Arab Spring To NATO Autumn
http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/12/28/63057848.html
Voice of Russia
December 28, 2011
From ‘Arab Spring’ to ‘Arab Autumn’?
Konstantin Garibov
Experts have called the ‘Arab Spring’ one of the main geopolitical events in 2011. Its first ‘snowdrop’ burst into blossom during the ‘Jasmine Revolution’ in Tunisia in December 2010. A wave of mass protests then occurred in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Syria and a number of other North African and Middle Eastern countries, something that led to contradictory and unpredictable consequences.
Initiated by the youth, all the revolutions started under the slogans of toppling the rulers who had been at the helm for years. Analysts were quick to call Arabs a subject of big-time politics, with some experts referring to demonstrators’ disappointment with the outcomes of the revolutions. Stanislav Tarasov, a Moscow-based Oriental Studies expert, says that it would be more appropriate to speak of the ‘Arab Autumn’, not the ‘Arab Spring.’
‘The Arab revolutions are starting to unseat secular regimes, Tarasov says, citing the ouster of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. Right now, the Muslim Brotherhood is coming to power in Egypt which, along with the results of the Tunisian presidential elections, may prompt Islamists to seize power in a number of other countries where Tarasov says religious autocracy may well be established in the future. But the main trouble is that the international community has got a new regional hot spot where tensions are yet to be defused,’ Tarasov concludes.
Yemen, Tunisia and Egypt were hit by The ‘Arab Spring’ especially hard. Yemen found itself on the verge of a break up, while Tunisia and Egypt faced economic implications, including capital outflow, unemployment growth and a decline in tourism. The situation remains tense in Syria, where the government’s clampdown on the opposition forced many to flee to neighboring Turkey to find refuge. In Libya, tens of thousands of people fled to Tunisia and other Maghreb countries earlier this year. At first, they flocked to these countries to flee a civil war and NATO airstrikes, but afterwards, they fled to escape repressions carried out against Gaddafi loyalists, says Moscow-based expert Alexei Podtserob who is also the former Russian Ambassador to Libya.
‘Libya’s facing a possible new civil war and the power transition further exacerbates the situation in the region, Podtserob says. More than 50,000 people have been killed in war-torn Libya since May which is approximately one percent of the country’s 6-million-strong population.’
According to Alexei Podtserob, the Libyan scenario of the ‘Arab Spring’ has seriously ruined the UN’s political image.
‘The West, he says, loosely interpreted the UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions on Libya, using them as a red herring to stage a direct NATO intervention against this North African country, something that seriously damaged the UN’s authority. This is one of the consequences of the ‘Arab Spring which I would rather call the ‘Arab Autumn,’ he concludes.
From the very beginning, Russia condemned the West’s military interference in Libya’s domestic affairs. A permanent UNSC member, Russia is now using its authority in the Arab world to try to prevent a repeat of the Libyan scenario in Syria. Additionally, Russia is lending support to mediation efforts by the African Union, the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council to improve the situation in Libya, Yemen and Syria. Moscow is actively contributing to the process of rebuilding Libya and a speedy start of a fully-fledged dialogue in Syria.
The New Dark Age 