21 March 2019 — New Eastern Outlook
The US withdrawal of all remaining diplomatic personnel from its embassy in Caracas means the real geostrategy show is about to start. For months now US policymakers have been on the rhetorical, economic, subversive interference offensive against the government of President Nicolas Maduro. But the reasons for the Trump administration’s aggressive stance against Venezuela are never cited. Here is a primer for the coming proxy war in Venezuela.
The Prelude to Invasion
Using rampant inflation and food scarcity that now grips much of Venezuela as an altruistic cause of friction with the US, the Trump administration has engaged in a full-scale insurgency in the same way the Obama administration helped create ISIS and the Syria catastrophe. Few analysts point out the truth of Maduro’s Venezuela, and the real reasons thousands have fled to neighboring countries. The most recent assault on the Maduro administration, what Venezuela’s president called an attack by the “imperialist United States,” an energy blackout has now fueled more unrest. After Maduro addressed his nation and the world saying:
“The United States’ imperialist government ordered this attack,” Maduro claimed in his 35-minute speech, only his second significant intervention since the crisis began last week. They came with a strategy of war of the kind that only these criminals – who have been to war and have destroyed the people of Iraq, of Libya, of Afghanistan and of Syria – think up.”
Maduro has been fighting for political survival since January when Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader battling to topple Maduro, declared himself Venezuela’s legitimate leader and was swiftly recognized by the US, Britain, and other allied nations. Now Guaidó has proclaimed Venezuela has “collapsed,” and is calling for “outside intervention,” which I believe will come within days. First and foremost, Juan Guaidó is a US puppet trained and positioned for the regime change Trump needs to take place in oil-rich Venezuela.
I am not the only one predicting this Latin American Spring (my term) Washington has cooked up. Journalist and author Max Blumenthal, as well as Cuban-American journalist Rick Sanchez both, say Juan Guaido’s “real constituency is in Washington” and that he’s at the forefront of a years-long destabilization campaign orchestrated by the US. At The Guardian, Oscar Guardiola-Rivera, who teaches human rights and philosophy at Birkbeck College, University of London called the election of Juan Guaidó a “coup” orchestrated by the Trump administration. But none of these analysts go so far as to explain why the US is so determined to control Venezuela. While oil riches is mentioned, and sanctions pointed to as causes of the country’s current strife, nobody recognizes how desperate the US is to get at this resource. Make no mistake, it is the United States’ addiction to cheap gas, food, and energy that is the cause of every political crisis on Earth. Read on to find out the truth.
The United States and the Anglo-European alliance is desperate. The leadership that has allowed America to consume 25% of all the available resources on the planet these last 70 years is in a fix. Venezuela and the rest of Latin America can help postpone what Matt Savinar described as the end of civilization as we know it. And while I do not totally agree with all of Savinar’s doomsday theories, the basis of his arguments are sound. The Saudi’s reached the peak of their oil production over a decade ago. They are currently on the hunt for reserves outside their own national boundaries, and they are shipping more heavy sour crude to the United States and worldwide than ever before.
The US Forting Up
The embargoes on Venezuela include the slashing of their shipments of heavy sour crude to the biggest oil refinery in North America, the 630,000-bpd Motiva facility in Port Arthur, Texas, which is controlled by Saudi Aramco. The main job at this facility, before the Venezuela sanctions, was to supply Americans with cheap gas from supplies outside the fracking craziness US presidents gave the okay to in recent years. I won’t get into the pitfalls of hydraulic fracking here, except to point out the costs per barrel and to the environment. At the end of the day, successive US administrations have been strangling Venezuela’s people by putting a chokehold on the country’s top export. Back in the early 2000’s, before all-out regime change was tried in the 2002 coup attempt, which was tied to the Bush presidency, Venezuela was exporting 50 million barrels a month to the US. As of 2018 this figure has dropped below 18 million barrels a month. And CNN is reporting that President Nicolas Maduro is hurting his people! If the average citizen knew who was really to blame, Trump’s coming proxy war would be much tougher to pull off.
This story says the Saudi’s are cutting the production of these heavy grades in order to prop up the price of the sulfur-laden grades. However, the real reason for their cuts is because they simply do not have the capacity to match Venezuela and Iran shipments in the wake of US sanctions. Oil Price would like the world to believe oil has never been better, but the bubble is about to burst unless the US can keep gas cheap and postpone the inevitable. This paragraph from Matt Savinar’s controversial book “The Oil Age Is Over : What to Expect as the World Runs Out of Cheap Oil, 2005-2050,” frames part of my argument here:
“In our current world, it is the precondition for all other resources, including alternative ones. To illustrate: as of the summer of 2004, a barrel of oil costs about $45, which is 80 percent more than the “ideal” price of about $25 per barrel. It would cost in the range of $100-$250 to get the amount of energy in that barrel of oil from renewable sources.155 This means an energy company won’t be motivated to aggressively pursue renewable energy until the cost of oil doubles, triples, or quadruples from its already dangerously high price. At that point it will be too late: our economy will be completely devastated.”
Now, we can argue from now on as to whether or not this theory applies to the situation today, but the eventuality of Savin’s argument cannot be disputed. No, billions of human beings will probably not die of hunger when oil production slips into decline (which it already has). However, regardless of your views on the origin of oil, we all can agree that we’re witnessing a delaying game by the big energy men who control Trump and other leaders. With regard to Venezuela’s current predicament, Savinar framed it best with:
“So-called “non-conventional” oil, such as the oil sands found in Canada and Venezuela, is incapable of replacing conventional oil…”
However, even though these “non-conventional” products cannot replace light oil in the future, they do provide a cushion so that Donald Trump does not have to hit the panic button.
Take a look at the author’s contention George W. Bush’s energy advisors, energy investment banker Matthew Simmon said an oil disaster was already underway almost two decades ago. Think about this for a moment. And guess what? Back in 2004, Simmons explained that in order for demand to be appropriately controlled, the price of oil would have to reach 182 dollars per barrel. As of this writing Brent Crude is at 66 dollars per barrel, or about one-third the price/demand control Bush’s advisors suggested to maintain order. Now factor in the revelation from WikiLeaks that Saudi reserves were probably overstated by 40% back in 2011. The cable revealed the prognosis from Dr. Sadad al-Husseini, former Executive Vice President for Exploration and Production at Saudi Aramco. No, I am not making any of this up. Trump is preparing for an Alamo last stand for America in my book.
Putin as Mad Max
In this section I am visualizing the movie Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome, and hearing the Tina Turner hit with the punch line – “We don’t need another hero…” Now let’s discuss Vladimir Putin and the “Russia factor” for a moment. What will the net effect of the western alliance’s economic war waged against Putin and Russia? This is actually the only question that matters. In order to understand what Mr. Putin has done, one has to consider for the sake of argument that there is such a thing as “peak oil.” Once we agree here, understanding how Vladimir Putin is by far the greatest leader of his homeland ever, it is much easier to grasp. Before you shake your head in objection, consider what happens to Russians if the world is put in shock once the Saudis and the Americans run out of gas! Two or three or even five hundred million Russians will be able to carry on industrially, agriculturally, and sustainable energy-wise with the reserves Russia currently has. The rest of the world, the other seven or eight billion tied to Middle East crude will not. Think on this, and then plug in Ukraine, Georgia, Syria, all the economic strategy, the propaganda, and the real war waged on Putin. All the Russian president has to do now is bolster his nation’s defenses to wait for the coming Armageddon.
I’ve wondered for years why the liberal world order chose “now” as the right time to move to take over the rest of the world. The answer was simple, as you can see. The implications are staggering too. The reason I am sure that the Trump administration will intervene in Venezuela is because they have to. Most people reading this will not be aware of a February 2004 Pentagon report on global climate change to then President Bush. In that document, U.S. strategists not only warned of impending climate change, but American generals suggested nuclear war would ensue once the world slipped into anarchy as nations attempt to secure food, water, and energy supplies. The report went on:
“An imminent scenario of catastrophic climate change is plausible and would challenge US national security in ways that should be considered immediately.”
This was 15 years ago right after Bush, and Britain’s Blair invaded Iraq to secure those oil fields. Please don’t take my word here, read for yourself from The Guardian story from 2004, or the Pentagon report from 2003. The report will also help many of you understand why Donald Trump’s administration is so vehement to build a border wall cordoning off Central and Latin America. This is a subject for a follow-up report, but imagine the chaos that will boil over from these Latin countries once the oil disaster and climate change really take hold. Another doomsday prediction! I know. I am truly sorry for the people of Venezuela, for the majority of Americans just want your oil – let’s just be clear. I am American, and I want you to know about the minority of us who would try and save your country. I hope I am wrong on the Trump invasion to come. Unfortunately, we have this from Reuters:
HAVANA (Reuters) – Cuba said on Thursday the United States was moving special forces closer to Venezuela as part of a covert plan to intervene in the chaotic South American country using the pretext of a humanitarian crisis.
Phil Butler, is a policy investigator and analyst, a political scientist and expert on Eastern Europe, he’s an author of the recent bestseller “Putin’s Praetorians” and other books. He writes exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”