A global manufacturing recession

1 October 2019 — Michael Roberts Blog

As we enter October, the global recession is with us – in manufacturing.  The PMI manufacturing activity indexes for most of the major economies are below 50, the threshold for expansion or contraction.  These are only surveys of corporate managers asking them about production, sales, employment etc.  But PMIs have been reasonably accurate indicators of actual industrial and manufacturing output, the data for which follow somewhat later.

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Global slump: the trade and technology trigger by michael roberts

26 May 2019 — Michael Roberts

Despite all the optimistic talk by President Trump about the state of the US economy, the latest data on economic activity and industrial production suggest that America is joining Europe and Japan in a sharp slowdown as we enter the second half of 2019.  And this is at a time when the trade and technology war between the US and China has moved up another gear and so threatens to trigger an outright global recession before the year is out.

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Capitalism: A delicate moment

14 April 2019 — Michael Roberts

The IMF-World Bank meeting in Washington this weekend revealed again that the world economy is slowing down and the prospect of an outright recession is getting much higher.  The IMF economists cut their outlook for global growth  to the lowest since the global financial crisis of 2009 amid a bleaker outlook in most major advanced economies and signs that higher tariffs are weighing on trade – “a growth slowdown and precarious recovery”, the IMF called it.

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The fantasy world of the Long Depression by michael roberts

22 March 2019 — Michael Roberts Blog

This week, the US Federal Reserve Bank decided to stop raising its policy interest rate for the rest of 2019.  The Fed started hiking rates from near zero back in late 2016 on the grounds that the Long Depression (in economic growth, investment and employment in the US and in other major economies) was over.  As economies reached full employment and used up excess capacity in industry, wages rises and price inflation would accelerate, so it would be necessary to curb any ‘overheating’ with higher interest rates to slow borrowing and spending.  This policy of ‘normalisation’, as it is called, seemed to be justified after the Trump tax cuts were introduced in late 2017. Those measures led to a sharp rise in after-tax profits for US corporations and an apparent pick-up in US real GDP growth, reaching a 3% yoy rate at the end of 2018.  All looked well.

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Video: The Economic Crisis & Crisis Theory II

13 June 2014 — Michael Hudson

This panel explored causes of the Great Recession and the continuing economic sluggishness since the recession’s ended, as well as how the left can respond to this situation. In keeping with the conference theme, panelists addressed what different analyses and theories imply about the kind of socioeconomic change that is called for.

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Video: Study Debunking Austerity Research Sparks Wide Reaction

23 April 2013 — The Real News Network

Bob Pollin (Co-Author of Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff): Deficit Hawks still defend conclusions of a study that contained spreadsheet errors and weighted selected countries in an inappropriate way; led to incorrect theory about public debt and growth (Inc. transcript).

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The Wrong Economic Prescriptions: Deeper Austerity as a “Solution” to Austerity By Kevin Zeese and Margaret Flowers

21 February 2013 — Global Research

Leeches could also be used in bloodletting. The withdrawal of so much blood as to induce syncope (fainting) was considered beneficial, and many sessions would only end when the patient began to swoon.

As the economy shows signs of recession, the leeches return. Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles have issued a new report calling for even deeper austerity. It is not what the economy needs as it stagnates and sputters toward a possible new collapse. Their report combined with President Obama’s State of the Union, the sequestration and Republican dogma are all combining to bring on another round of budget cuts, which will only make recession more likely. Continue reading

A Tale of Two Economies: Skyrocketing Stock Market for the Rich, Devaluation of Work for the Rest

012 — MARK KARLIN, EDITOR OF BUZZFLASH AT TRUTHOUT

The monthly job figures came out today (September 7th) and the media has determined that they indicate that the <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>unemployment situation is not improving. “Hiring Slows in August, Adding to Pressure on Fed and <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>Obama” blares a headline in the September 7th <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>New York Times.

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