7 August, 2009 — Council on Hemispheric Affairs
- Although the de facto Micheletti regime has stated that it supports the San Jose Accord, events on the ground indicate that it is not pushing for the reinstatement of Zelaya.
- -Zelaya’s return is complicated by an entrenched interim government; a restoration of the deposed leader would only be possible through extreme international pressure.
- Zelaya’s border spectacle aimed at keeping the deposed president in the headlines, since his visibility is somewhat fading.
As Honduras marks a month since Zelaya’s removal from power, the prospects for a negotiated settlement to the Honduran crisis further dim. Although the tiny and very poor nation has managed to capture the world’s attention for a few brief days in late June, both sides have since entrenched their positions, rendering dialogue all but an impossible proposition. Normality has returned in most of the country and, apart from several road closures by Zelaya supporters, there appears to be little of the street violence which marked the days immediately following Zelaya’s ousting. Honduras is not out of the woods yet, however. Supporters of the deposed president have carried out a series of both peaceful and violent protests in the capital, and some of these demonstrations have been broken up by the National Police. While the initial raw furor over Zelaya’s removal may have subsided, the months ahead most likely will prove to be extremely difficult ones for the Honduran people to endure.