Fernando Rivero

1.- War and U.S. Military Doctrine: The armed conflict in Europe is directly related to U.S. military planning. The “Third Offset Strategy”, the “Interim Strategic National Security Guidance” and the advent of the NATO “Strategic Concept” of 2022, outline the US military plan for global domination. The Third Offset Strategy, proposed by Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel and Deputy Secretary Robert Work, is a prospective for the adequacy of U.S. war potential and was born as a response to the accession of Crimea to the Russian Federation in 2014. Biden’s Strategic Guidance, adopted in 2021, is a doctrinal update that places emerging powers, led by Russia and China, at the center of its concerns. For its part, NATO has set out to update its Strategic Concept considering three pivotal ideas, among which is the adoption of a more global approach *These official plans of the United States and NATO explain why Russia is legitimately concerned about its security*.

2.- Ukraine in Current Geopolitics: In line with the outlined planning, the Kiev government intends to turn Ukraine into a NATO outpost, to reinforce the military encirclement of NATO against Russia and to turn Ukraine into the energy pivot of Europe, which explains the boycott of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would supply gas from Russia to Germany to serve 26 million households. *The approach of Ukraine’s accession to NATO was aimed at breaking Russia’s geopolitical rapprochement with the European Union, outlining the US energy tutelage over Europe and, therefore, responds to Washington’s geostrategic interests”.

Moscow is pursuing a war of quick decision. For NATO, a protracted war that would wear down the Russian federation, i.e. Vietnamization of the conflict, would be the most expedient.

3.- Russia’s Special Military Operation: Considering the political-diplomatic repercussions of this armed action, its military capacity in contrast with the Russian military power, the strength of armored vehicles that Russia possesses in a theater of operations characterized by the Ukrainian flat topography and its undoubted air supremacy, all this indicates that Moscow is pursuing a war of quick decision. For NATO, a protracted war that would wear down the Russian federation, i.e. Vietnamization of the conflict, would be the most expedient. Therefore, the “cognitive war” against Russia implemented by NATO, the determined support of all Western powers for Ukraine and the preparations for the defense of the government of Volodymir Zelensky, allow us to affirm that, in the event that a negotiated solution is not achieved beforehand, heavy fighting is in the offing which will define the course of events. *Kiev is the center of gravity of the war. Its capture seals the victory of the Russian military campaign. But the political cost of that battle will define the winner of the war.

The present war is not between left and right.

4.- The Advent of a New Order: The present war is not between left and right. We are witnessing the end of the unipolar world inherited from the Cold War. Events presage the emergence of a new international reality. Undoubtedly, the US at the head of NATO defends its global hegemony while neoliberal capitalism is in crisis. The West is reaffirming its narrative, its main powers are setting themselves up as the carcinogens of the current civilizational model and rejecting some liberal ideas by imposing sanctions that violate the human rights they claim to defend. For their part, the emerging powers are demanding greater space in international politics. Likewise, many peoples are resisting imperialism. *It is not the end of capitalism. We are witnessing a change of epoch where multipolarity seems to be its trademark.

Lovers of life cry out for peace and for a new institutional framework capable of overcoming the subordination of the United Nations to the imperatives of certain powers. Dismantling NATO is another imperative that cannot be postponed in order to safeguard peace and the self-determination of peoples.

5.- A negotiated solution: No one in his right mind could fuel a military confrontation that could turn into a spiral that could lead us to a nuclear war. Lovers of life cry out for peace and for a new institutional framework capable of overcoming the subordination of the United Nations to the imperatives of certain powers. Dismantling NATO is another imperative that cannot be postponed in order to safeguard peace and the self-determination of peoples. For now, the clamor of humanity is for Ukraine to become a neutral territory where respect for different nations and the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction on its territory prevail. This would be the correct policy to defend its sovereignty and serve as a buffer against clashes between the powers of the world. An honest negotiation must address these issues. NATO imperatives are not in Ukraine’s national interest. Much less are they on the agenda of humanity. In contrast, climate change, poverty, hunger and neo-colonialism are the most pressing issues of real concern to millions around the world. There is no doubt that humanity requires alternatives*.

Translation by Internationalist 360°